Posts – Page 16

The (Summer) 2020 Real Estate Craze

August 16, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I try not to write articles about market statistics. It creates references in time that may not be relevant a year from now, or even a month from now. I am working with a customer as I write this that brought up an article I wrote back in 2012, and how much things have changed. It goes back to using old real estate data to value something today. Appraisers like to use the most recent data possible, and rarely look at anything over a year old. There’s a good reason for that. With the above said, let’s get into it.

What’s Happening? If you are reading this article today, I don’t have to tell you how crazy the real estate market is. If you are reading this article 8 years from now, it’s crazy. Everything is flying off the shelf. To put things into perspective, In 2019 there were 281 land sales throughout Teton Valley. Year-to-date we’ve had 189. This isn’t that crazy. Add in the number of pending transactions and that number jumps to 292 – and August isn’t even over yet. There are over 100 contracts on vacant land out there today. Here’s another one. In 2019 there were 21 sales throughout Teton Valley in excess of $1m. YTD there have been 15, but there are 20 pending sale. I can do this in pretty much every sector of the real estate market.

What Caused This? I think it’s pretty clear that COVID-19 has something to do with it. People flocking to rural America is a conversation I’m almost tired of having. I thought about naming the article in the name of the catalyst – but I’m not even going to go there. This is a touchy subject that has impacted millions of people. Regardless, I’m sure we are in a little bit of a perfect storm. Another thing I’ll hate to admit for future readers sifting through old material, interest rates are at historic lows. Even the interest rates are tied to the pandemic, however. Teton Valley was waiting to be discovered? Yeah, we’ve been saying that for a long time. I wrote an article not long ago about the common comparison of the future of Teton Valley to the next Park City or Sun Valley. In that article, I basically made a claim that we have too much available land and we were quite a ways off from that happening. Now I remember why I don’t make predictions.

What’s Going to Happen? Hey, I just said I don’t want to make predictions. I will provide a few scenarios, however.

Scenario 1: We do become the next big destination. Targhee expands, all of those 3500 building sites throughout the Valley that everyone said would never get purchased are snatched up. Construction goes wild, and commercial expands. Teton Valley becomes as recognizable as Sun Valley.

Scenario 2: All of the bad stuff happening in the world catches up to us, and gets us back into reality. Everyone working from home and moving to Teton Valley realizes that we do have a Winter season, and it is a long one. Inventory levels creep back up and the market stabilizes, or sags.

Scenario 3: We know there is turmoil in the economy, but not all economic downturns impact real estate. After all, most historic data shows that since the 50s or so, we really only had one drop in real estate prices, and that was in 2007. It’s fresh in my mind because that was a big chunk of my career, so that probably always causes me to be conservative or even pessimistic in some fashion or another. Anyway, certain areas of the Valley are changed forever. All of the golf clubs become more exclusive, and the high-end real estate becomes less obtainable. Many of these land purchases remain vacant land, but residential inventory rises over time. Those city dwellers tired of winter adds to that inventory, and the market stabilizes, or at least normalizes. Real estate prices aren’t dramatically affected because construction costs remain high, and much of the land purchased today is redistributed into the market over the next generation. COVID-19 and the Summer of 2020 changes the landscape of Teton Valley forever, and traffic increases with visitors who have finally discovered our beautiful home.

Remember, I don’t make predictions. But if somebody gave me all three of these options, I think this is the one I would probably put my money on.

Land Inspections

June 13, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I’m not sure if it’s how busy things are or the increase in the number of land transactions equating to an increase of things I haven’t seen before, but I sure have seen an uptick of strange inspection findings. Over the course of my career, I’ve bumped into town parcels without connectivity to a sewer line, sinkholes because of buried cars, a number of buried fuel tanks, concerns over oil spills, hillside geotechnical concerns and more. As one might expect, I’ve also run the gamut with discussions on radon, bugs, covenants and restrictions, easements and so on. However, lately, I’ve even bumped into a few more. Bedrock preventing a typical septic install, extraordinary deep wells and artesian wells and springs are a few examples. One thing is for sure (although not as geographically interesting as Yellowstone), Teton Valley has some diverse terrain with nuances that one may not normally consider. I suppose it all depends on what one might be used to in terms of the nuances of their area, but even I would not have predicted bedrock in areas of the Teton Valley.

The above being said, it’s important to do your research. Remember that as agents, we are not experts in geography, terrain, practicing law, interpreting title and so forth. Real estate agents negotiate real estate transactions, and that includes negotiating due diligence and inspection periods for buyers to better understand and research the property they intend to buy.

Unfortunately, it’s almost impossible to plan for every situation that may arise when purchasing land with plans to build. One of the benefits (although not a guarantee) of purchasing a pre-existing home is the fact that many of the potential problems either did not arise, or have been resolved. Another tip to consider when buying land is purchasing in a subdivision. Although I have bumped into properties within subdivisions that still had special wetland requirements or septic problems, it’s less likely. With the growing demand for properties that are not in a subdivision, it’s important to also consider the fact that subdivisions have likely already been through a preliminary set of county or city required engineering reports, soil testing and so on.

The moral of the story, and the theme for many of my articles is; do your research!

Covid-19 and its effects on our Market (May 2020)

May 7, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

In general, I have moved away from market updates when it comes to my real estate blog. We are moving those updates over to the brokerage. If you’d like to receive both, sign up on Teton Valley Realty’s website. I’ll always include the latest blog post. I want to try to keep all of the content for these posts relevant for as long as possible, and markets can change on a moment’s notice. This market update will definitely go down in the history books, so I think it’s appropriate.

The real estate market has remained surprisingly active. I seem to be working harder than ever – you know, when the going gets tough… as they say. I am doing a TON of videos and virtual tours, and surprisingly, have found pretty good success with “sight unseen” contracts. It definitely feels like the younger generation buyers have slowed and taken the issue with a little more concern. On the flip side, older generation buyers have ramped up with an increase in contacts, showings and contracts. I might be making this up, but to some degree, it makes sense. Younger generation buyers probably have more of our local tourism-related jobs, which have been hardest hit. The past several years of expansion have been great for almost everyone, but it would seem that the younger crowd probably hasn’t had as many opportunities to capitalize as those taking advantage of expanding markets and real estate values. On an interesting side note, the younger generation also seems to have a greater level of concern with respect to social distancing and being very careful about guidelines. This seems to contradict what we are hearing in the National news about younger people getting back to everyday life, or ignoring recommendations.

If you know me, I stay away from predictions. If I do make them, they are information-based, and never definitive. That being said, I’m going to guess we are going to see a continuous stream of people hoping to move away from populated areas and into rural America. If it were me, this is the first place I would look. I have read National Real Estate resource predictions of home values dropping 2-4% if things get back to “normal” soon, and 5-6% if things move slower in terms of recovery. I predict that it is less likely that rural areas will see contraction, but if they do, it will be further down the road – probably months after urban areas see an impact.

Virtual Tours

March 24, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Back in July, I started to write an article about virtual tours. I do this frequently, losing interest in the article or saving it in my inbox for another day, probably part of the reason why I always have 50 or more emails in my inbox.

I started thinking about the article again in the midst of the current covid-19 virus. Back when I first started thinking about this, the gist of my article was that while I felt virtual tours could help in many cases, they can also hurt. Virtual tours, high quality photographs, drone footage and even videos can be deceiving. As a seller, I might be concerned that someone may not like my home before they even have a chance to see it. As an agent, I want to showcase the great qualities of a listing that I represent, and when possible, I prefer to do that in person. If you know me, you know that I am not, by any stretch of the word, a pushy salesman. I like to think that I point out good qualities, and try to be proactive about finding ways to work around problems for my listings. I also try to recognize when a potential buyer just isn’t interested in a property, and do my best to find something suitable. More than anything, though, I like meeting people. I like shaking hands, and I like getting to know potential clients as we hit the road to explore the beautiful Teton region.

The above being said, I’m curious to see how the current situation will shape the future of the home-buying process. I think, and hope, that things get back to normal. But I also think that our world is changing. Fortunately, I have a pretty good handle on most of the technology available today. We use a number of tools within the brokerage that help us streamline our transactions and processes. I still think that there’s going to be value and bigger demand for virtual tours and videos, but I also think we’re going to have to be careful about how we present media. Sellers are going to rely on us to sell their property, and buyers are going to rely on us to make travel plans to come look at one piece of property, in many cases across the United States or from another country. I believe there is going to be an ever-evolving balance between accurately expressing real estate through virtual media and doing our best to properly represent all of our customers and clients.

Recent Testimonials