Teton Realty Blog

Teton Region Real Estate Market Stats, Articles & News

November ’22 Market Report & Predictions

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Okay, I get it. You are tired of the usual market reports that cover where we are today. MBS markets, the CPI, inflation, interest rates and inventory. Same old. To be fair, this is all relevant data. Many look to market reports to understand when to buy or sell, how to price real estate listings, and what to expect.

So, on that last point, I took some time to review my own past articles, many even going back half a dozen years or more. What was I saying then? One interesting article (link below) was based on a Harvard study focusing primarily on supply and demand. In that article, historic trends pointed to a possible recession in or by 2024 (using my own math) as a result of the possible oversupply of existing homes. To clarify, recessions are not tied to the housing market, as we can clearly see with what is happening in the Nation today. Many economic factors are tied to the “R” word, and there have even been recent arguments that the traditional measure of a recession based on positive or negative growth and the gross domestic product are not relevant today.

2016 Article Link

Where am I headed with this? Based on the root of the article I linked above, we really have to take a look at supply, or more specifically, oversupply. How does the supply of homes today compare with the last housing market bubble? I won’t focus as much on how it compares with historic trends, we’ve covered that dozens of times. That data, for those not paying attention, reveals that we are currently in a typical market with no indication of an oversupply on the market today. We sit at a comfortable balance with anywhere from 5 to 6 months’ worth of supply at the time of this writing. While land exceeds that, the supply of land is not unusual for our market, even during good times.

It is hard to calculate historic absorption, but I can look at average “days on market” for real estate for past years, and I do have previous market reports with historic data available on our brokerage website. According to the data and opinion in my 2016 article, our market would be in decline in the 2022-2024 timeframe. Below is some data that compares where we are today, vs historic years.

Summary: I have maintained my position that the Covid years supercharged the real estate market that was already primed for a “bubble”, this is common knowledge. However, Covid also created major supply chains and labor issues that built shelter for a construction bubble, limiting the number of new projects, at least in our region. As a result, the supply of existing homes is lower than it otherwise may have been at this time due to the astronomical cost. Though my data below is skewed (the Winter data was normally based on the activity from the Summer months, as an example), the takeaway is that since 2017, residential absorption has averaged about  5.4 months before a sale occurred, MORE than the estimated supply of homes today. Though I anticipate things will continue to slow, probably not much more than the proportionate increase of interest rates, which is also starting to see relief based on the most recent economic reports.

TIME OF WRITING: 11/11/2022
Residential Absorption: 5.2 months
Residential Number of Listings: 127
Land Absorption: 7.3 months
Land Number of Listings: 253

AVERAGES SINCE 2017
Residential Absorption: 5.4 months
Residential Number of Listings: 125
Land Absorption: 11.9 months
Land Number of Listings: 360

2017 Summer Data
Residential Average Time on Market: 7.2 months
Residential Number of Listings: 114
Land Average Time on Market: 15.3 months
Land Number of Listings: 134

2017 Winter Data
Residential Average Time on Market: 5.4 months
Residential Number of Listings: 207
Land Average Time on Market: 25.5 months
Land Number of Listings: 509

2018 Summer Data
Residential Average Time on Market: 7.7 months
Residential Number of Listings: 135
Land Average Time on Market: 10.7 months
Land Number of Listings: 135

2018 Winter Data
Residential Average Time on Market: 5.5 months
Residential Number of Listings: 169
Land Average Time on Market: 13.1 months
Land Number of Listings: 617

2019 Summer Data
Residential Average Time on Market: 6.6 months
Residential Number of Listings: 144
Land Average Time on Market: 11.3 months
Land Number of Listings: 460

2019 Winter Data
Residential Average Time on Market: 5.4 months
Residential Number of Listings: 159
Land Average Time on Market: 12.1 months
Land Number of Listings: 507

2020 Summer Data
Residential Average Time on Market: 4.4 months
Residential Number of Listings: 113
Land Average Time on Market: 10.4 months
Land Number of Listings: 406

2020 Winter Data
Residential Average Time on Market: 6 months
Residential Number of Listings: 114
Land Average Time on Market: 10.8 months
Land Number of Listings: 384

2021 Summer Data
Residential Average Time on Market: 3.9 months
Residential Number of Listings: 46
Land Average Time on Market: 5.5 months
Land Number of Listings: 213

2021 Winter Data
Residential Average Time on Market: 2.1 months
Residential Number of Listings: 51
Land Average Time on Market: 4.7 months
Land Number of Listings: 238

What do you consider Peak season?

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One of the most frequently asked questions I get pertains to the seasons. I wear multiple hats around the office. Sometimes I provide insight for the property management team. Other times, I may be working the administrative or brokerage side of the business. In addition, and like any real estate agent, I’m always working “sales”. Interestingly, the property management side assumes that Winter is the big season, and the sales side customers assume Summer is the big season.

I’m not going to pull metrics to try to prove my point when it comes to rentals, I can assure you that the Summer months are the busiest. The property management team is reeling with PTSD by the time October rolls around, normally to be reminded of how much of a pain property management can be through the Winter months.

I can vividly remember researching this very topic on the sales side some years ago and determining that there were more sales that Winter season than the Summer prior. This instance most certainly occurred post 2008 and pre-2020, and I don’t recall any volatile years in between. That said, I can also distinctly recall dozens, if not hundreds of instances where home or land sellers discuss taking listings off the market as winter approaches, with the strong opinion that things do indeed congeal as the temperatures drop.

Okay, enough already. Here are the stats. I’m working off of the Teton board of realtors MLS and including all of the areas served (Teton Valley, Jackson, Alpine and surrounding areas), and I am not breaking this down by property type (give me a break, it’s 11:00 p.m. on Sunday). Also, I’ve decided to base Summer sales on June 1st through November 30th, and Winter December 1st through May 30th.

2018
Winter sales: 788
Summer sales: 1,146

2019
Winter sales: 711
Summer sales: 1,177

2020
Winter sales: 686
Summer sales: 2,255

2021
Winter sales: 1,676
Summer sales: 1,782

2022
Winter sales: 1,151
Summer sales: 894

There you have it. 2022 is obviously an anomaly with a changing market on the heels of the post covid real estate craze, as was likely my aforementioned vivid memory – unless it’s not a memory at all… At any rate, just because there are more sales that occur during the Summer season, does not mean that homes should not be listed for sale during the Winter months as 2022 easily illustrates. Further, more sales does not necessarily equate to a higher sales price. Often competing with less inventory in the Winter can benefit one looking to sell.

How do we value your property, and how do we arrive at a recommended price?

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Good real estate agents need to have a variety of unique skill sets and be prepared to wear many hats. Professionalism amongst our customers and peers, a skill set with respect to marketing is important, an understanding of technology is key, a general understanding of construction, home maintenance, familiarity with their area of service including government entities, code, zoning – the list goes on. One often overlooked skill is understanding the basics of appraisal (though we are not appraisers) and valuation when it comes to market data, how it conforms with the local area and it’s nuances, different valuation methods and tying it all together with absorption data and recent sales.

Most real estate agents use a comparable sales method of valuation. Basically, we look at recent sale data (that usually only real estate agents in the area have access to), and form an opinion of value based on that data. However, it runs deeper than that. Not only do we need to find the most appropriate data, but we need to make adjustments based on unique attributes of the property we are valuing. In addition, we need to look at market conditions, including absorption.

Absorption is usually calculated by looking at the number of sales in a specific time period as well as the current supply. As real estate agents, we generally measure absorption by the number of months’ supply of inventory in that particular sector of the local real estate market. We then have to look at trends to understand if the amount of supply is likely to increase, or decrease in the coming months as we begin marketing your property. It’s easy to get caught up in markets. Most recently, we saw unprecedented demand and historically low supply. We need to take this into consideration when we value property, and it’s hard to convey this information to the public. Sellers want the highest price possible. The public needs to understand that it is our job to obtain this. We have a professional duty to do so for those we represent. This is why it’s so difficult to explain changing market conditions, particularly when things are slowing. As an example, we might look at comparable sales from the past 6 months, which were historically high. Not only do we need to make adjustments for the specifics of the property we are valuing, but we also need to take into consideration the changing market conditions and the increasing supply as mentioned above.

Now, let’s take a deeper dive into absorption as it relates to valuation. If we had one month’s worth of supply (a very low number) 5 months ago, four months’ of supply today and the market conditions are indicating we may have even more in a few months’ time, we also need to manage expectations on timing. Essentially, if we absolutely nailed a valuation and properly account for changing market conditions to the best of our ability with predictions and market indicators, the home should sell at the then calculated absorption time. In other words, if on the date of sale the current absorption is about 6 months’ worth of supply, and you were on the market for 6 months, everything tied together properly. Do we want to take offers in advance of that? If it’s the right offer, absolutely. If things take longer what’s going on? Well that’s an indication that the property may be overpriced. The challenge with this? Teton Valley is very seasonal in terms of its peak sale seasons. If we wait 6 months to learn that a listing is overpriced or agree to list at a higher number because our client asks us to do so, we spent quite a bit of time on the market with conditions that are indicating a slowdown. These are the risks of pricing without basis, or based on ill advice. To summarize, it is always in a Seller’s best interest to find a professional in the marketplace (any marketplace), that understands all of the aforementioned nuances to the real estate industry. A great marketing agent that doesn’t understand local trends is not necessarily a great agent at all. In addition, it’s easy to get caught up in crazy markets, and it’s even easier to enter into a phase of denial when hoping to capitalize on your investment, which should be everyone’s goal. Take your real estate broker’s advice if they have a clear understanding of the market if it is in fact your intent to sell at the highest price.

Financing Options, Let’s Get Creative!

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Usual disclaimer: I am not a lender. Always verify information and available programs with your lender. I recently wrote an article similar to this one, but I’m going to try to use this article just to get down to brass tacks on financing options and ways to get creative to get the best rate, and to lock that rate in the event you are purchasing new construction and are in a holding pattern.

Rate Locks & Extended Rate Locks

Many people don’t realize that you can lock rates for an extended period of time. This is an excellent tool when purchasing real estate that is under construction. Lenders usually carry products to lock rates for 6, 9 or even 12 months. While these products may come with a slightly higher rate, they often have options to “float down” the rate in the event rates begin to decrease. This is the best of both worlds.

Temporary Buy Downs

Temporary buy Downs can be a great way to secure a loan for someone that might be pushing their limits in terms of a debt to income ratio, and need to get their payment a little lower for the first couple of years. This buy down can sometimes be negotiated with the seller to be paid at closing, and provides the buyer with a payment that is a little more manageable for the first two or three years.

Permanent Buy Downs

Nothing new with buying your interest rate down up front, but it is important to look at the payback depending on how long you intend to hold the loan. Typically a buying “point” (1% of the purchase price amount) will get you a 1/8% to 1/4% lower rate, but it’s always great to get a quote because sometimes a point can get you an even greater discount.

Adjustable Rate Mortgages An adjustable rate mortgage can be a scary thought, basically it’s fixed for a certain amount of time and can adjust up after the initial fixed rate period expires. However, below is an example of a comparison between a 10-1 adjustable rate mortgage and a 30-Yr fixed mortgage, roughly it today’s rates. Considering the average homeowner holds their mortgage or loan far less than 10 years, there’s quite a bit of protection as well as opportunity to refinance that loan during a decade long time span.

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