Market Reports Archives - Page 6 of 18

The Importance of Performance

April 5, 2021 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

For those of you who haven’t witnessed this crazy real estate market, things are booming. The market is changing almost daily, and the value of a home a week ago probably isn’t the same as it is today.

With these crazy markets, it’s important to follow through and meet all of the obligations of any agreement that you have, primarily as a Buyer. The purchase agreements we often use are provided by the Idaho Realtors association. These contracts have some boilerplate, key deadlines and obligations for Buyers to meet in most circumstances. In addition, there may be a number of built-in contingencies or Buyer obligations beyond the traditional ones. I will outline a few of the most common examples below.

– Earnest Money Delivery: Depending on how your contract is written, it may be stated that the earnest money is already delivered, or shall be delivered within a certain time frame. As a Buyer, it is your responsibility to make absolutely certain that you deliver these funds in accordance with what the agreement states. For example, if the agreement states that the earnest money shall be delivered in the form of a personal check within three business days of acceptance to title company x, make sure it’s there. If the earnest money is not received in a timely manner, the Seller can elect to terminate the agreement.

– Proof of Funds or Loan Approval: Another common example is the requirement to deliver proof of funds and/or a loan approval letter within a certain amount of time. The agreements are typically written in a way that provides the Seller a few days to cancel the agreement if you don’t deliver these items by the deadline.

– Closing/Loan Funding: This is a big one. It is important to stay in close communication with your lender and remind them the importance of closing on time. Like everyone else, loan officers are busy and it’s easy to set a file aside and pick it up a couple of days too late. Make sure everyone involved in the transaction from real estate professionals to title companies knows exactly who the loan contact is, and try to set up reminders for appraisals and periodic check-ins. Other obligations and contingencies exist, so it’s important to have your real estate representative prepare a timeline with key dates and deadlines. Make sure you pay close attention to the difference between a business day and the calendar day, and understand that business days end at 5:00 Mountain Time. Sellers have obligations too, but in a Seller’s market it usually doesn’t benefit a buyer as much to try to act on these deadlines.

Real Estate themes of 2020

January 4, 2021 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

As you might imagine, the common real estate theme for 2020 was the craze of city dwellers looking for a rural escape. 2020 was one of the busiest years on record (if not history) when it came to sales volume, velocity and dollar volume. We didn’t quite hit 700 land sales in Teton Valley and Alta, but it was darn close. That’s a far cry from 281 land sales in 2019. Residential sales likely would have been the same had there been the inventory to promote those sales.

Aside from the market itself, I didn’t hear as much in terms of tiny homes, which I would have easily identified as the “theme” for 2019 and the years leading up to 2019. Interestingly, there wasn’t much talk of tiny homes in 2007 either, the last memorable real estate boom. In fact, most people were going big as opposed to building small.

I did hear quite a bit about was vacation rentals. While I believe many of the land sales were simply the usual group that wants to own a piece of Teton Valley, many did ask about the viability of renting in the areas they shopped. This isn’t all that uncommon though. The year started out with what I described, those looking to transition to the area permanently which led to a number of questions related to the school system, hospitals, internet speeds – everyday life in Teton Valley. The last half of the year is where I noticed an influx of second homeowners. Much like those seeing the window close on their opportunity to own a piece of land, it seemed others had a similar feeling when it came to purchasing a home. To justify the increasing costs, and to capitalize on income to offset the cost of ownership, I had quite a few discussions about vacation rentals.

I’ve written articles in the past about short-term rental restriction, mostly a power that only homeowners associations possess. With such a variety of owners and investors in each development, it may become challenging to amend subdivision documents to restrict short-term rentals, but I can foresee that becoming a topic in the years to follow.

2021 will surely be an interesting year in real estate. Most builders are booked out one to two years, and rising construction and material costs haven’t seemed to subside. If the majority of current construction is custom work for individual homeowners, inventory will likely remain low. Property owners that have been waiting in the wings may identify 2021 as the time to sell, if the inventory remains low. I am personally interested to see how National trends and factors impact the market, interest rates and the overall economy can have substantial influence as well. Regardless, I’m looking forward to “normal”, whatever that is.

2020 Real Estate Market Report & Past Predictions

November 29, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

# Sales
Earlier this summer I wrote about the sudden market craze and it’s impact on land sales. Then, there were 292 (August 16th) land sales with around 100 more pending sale. I predicted by year end we would hit 600 sales in Teton Valley & Alta. We’ve hit 582 as of this writing with 100 more pending sale. We’ll see how many of those close this year.

While we’re talking sales, residential is also way up in terms of # of sales. 365 YTD with another 75 pending, to be exact. That’s way up from 2019 with “only” 289 sales, but land is what stands out here.

Sales Prices
Sales prices, as you might guess, are also up significantly. Both land and residential averages are slightly skewed as a result of a few seemingly fantastical sales prices, but the average land price is down, likely due to affordable lots being snapped up.

The averages sales price in 2019 was $132,821 while 2020 is down about 20% to an average sales price of $118,775.

The average residential sales price in 2019 was $449,732. The average price based on sales to date is $585,480, up nearly 25%.

New Homes & Construction
Building and building permit (and building costs) numbers are strong, but rising build costs seem to be keeping things at bay. The county is reporting 112 permits (not including city permits) for the Spring & Summer season. Not having historical data, I’ll use sales data to make a point;

2020 YTD has seen 145 sales built in 2019 and 2020.
2019 saw 175 sales built in 2018 and 2019.
2007 saw 302 sales that were built in 2006 and 2007.

Past Predictions
I’ll bet that the market will outpace my 600 land sales prediction by year end, possibly by a significant margin. This is historical. After all, 2007 (my universal point of reference) saw only 626 land sales. While digging through past posts I found an article I wrote in 2016 about the potential impacts of the 2016 Presidential election. The post didn’t have much to do with elections at all (I think the point was that elections don’t usually impact real estate) but more with Real Estate cycles in general. It quoted a Harvard article written by Teo Nicolais talking about market cycles. Using his methodology (barring any major interruption such as global war) we should be in the midst of a Hypersupply phase on the cusp of a slowdown with rents on the verge of dropping. This is clearly not the case, but I would certainly call the Covid-19 pandemic a “major interruption”. No, it hasn’t slowed real estate or refinances with historic rates, but I would argue that it has slowed construction and speculative real estate as a result. If construction costs don’t come down, or worse, continue to rise, will this create (or continue to inflate) a bubble? Possibly. It all depends on how the market reacts to the increasing prices and sales volume such as that data provided above.

On that note… (Sorry, I’ve got to say it) – It is a great time to consider selling NOW. If it’s in the cards, let us provide some data to help. It’s easy, free, and no one in our firm is pushy. Learn More Here.

The (Summer) 2020 Real Estate Craze

August 16, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I try not to write articles about market statistics. It creates references in time that may not be relevant a year from now, or even a month from now. I am working with a customer as I write this that brought up an article I wrote back in 2012, and how much things have changed. It goes back to using old real estate data to value something today. Appraisers like to use the most recent data possible, and rarely look at anything over a year old. There’s a good reason for that. With the above said, let’s get into it.

What’s Happening? If you are reading this article today, I don’t have to tell you how crazy the real estate market is. If you are reading this article 8 years from now, it’s crazy. Everything is flying off the shelf. To put things into perspective, In 2019 there were 281 land sales throughout Teton Valley. Year-to-date we’ve had 189. This isn’t that crazy. Add in the number of pending transactions and that number jumps to 292 – and August isn’t even over yet. There are over 100 contracts on vacant land out there today. Here’s another one. In 2019 there were 21 sales throughout Teton Valley in excess of $1m. YTD there have been 15, but there are 20 pending sale. I can do this in pretty much every sector of the real estate market.

What Caused This? I think it’s pretty clear that COVID-19 has something to do with it. People flocking to rural America is a conversation I’m almost tired of having. I thought about naming the article in the name of the catalyst – but I’m not even going to go there. This is a touchy subject that has impacted millions of people. Regardless, I’m sure we are in a little bit of a perfect storm. Another thing I’ll hate to admit for future readers sifting through old material, interest rates are at historic lows. Even the interest rates are tied to the pandemic, however. Teton Valley was waiting to be discovered? Yeah, we’ve been saying that for a long time. I wrote an article not long ago about the common comparison of the future of Teton Valley to the next Park City or Sun Valley. In that article, I basically made a claim that we have too much available land and we were quite a ways off from that happening. Now I remember why I don’t make predictions.

What’s Going to Happen? Hey, I just said I don’t want to make predictions. I will provide a few scenarios, however.

Scenario 1: We do become the next big destination. Targhee expands, all of those 3500 building sites throughout the Valley that everyone said would never get purchased are snatched up. Construction goes wild, and commercial expands. Teton Valley becomes as recognizable as Sun Valley.

Scenario 2: All of the bad stuff happening in the world catches up to us, and gets us back into reality. Everyone working from home and moving to Teton Valley realizes that we do have a Winter season, and it is a long one. Inventory levels creep back up and the market stabilizes, or sags.

Scenario 3: We know there is turmoil in the economy, but not all economic downturns impact real estate. After all, most historic data shows that since the 50s or so, we really only had one drop in real estate prices, and that was in 2007. It’s fresh in my mind because that was a big chunk of my career, so that probably always causes me to be conservative or even pessimistic in some fashion or another. Anyway, certain areas of the Valley are changed forever. All of the golf clubs become more exclusive, and the high-end real estate becomes less obtainable. Many of these land purchases remain vacant land, but residential inventory rises over time. Those city dwellers tired of winter adds to that inventory, and the market stabilizes, or at least normalizes. Real estate prices aren’t dramatically affected because construction costs remain high, and much of the land purchased today is redistributed into the market over the next generation. COVID-19 and the Summer of 2020 changes the landscape of Teton Valley forever, and traffic increases with visitors who have finally discovered our beautiful home.

Remember, I don’t make predictions. But if somebody gave me all three of these options, I think this is the one I would probably put my money on.

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