Teton County, Idaho Archives - Page 11 of 28

2020 Real Estate Market Report & Past Predictions

November 29, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

# Sales
Earlier this summer I wrote about the sudden market craze and it’s impact on land sales. Then, there were 292 (August 16th) land sales with around 100 more pending sale. I predicted by year end we would hit 600 sales in Teton Valley & Alta. We’ve hit 582 as of this writing with 100 more pending sale. We’ll see how many of those close this year.

While we’re talking sales, residential is also way up in terms of # of sales. 365 YTD with another 75 pending, to be exact. That’s way up from 2019 with “only” 289 sales, but land is what stands out here.

Sales Prices
Sales prices, as you might guess, are also up significantly. Both land and residential averages are slightly skewed as a result of a few seemingly fantastical sales prices, but the average land price is down, likely due to affordable lots being snapped up.

The averages sales price in 2019 was $132,821 while 2020 is down about 20% to an average sales price of $118,775.

The average residential sales price in 2019 was $449,732. The average price based on sales to date is $585,480, up nearly 25%.

New Homes & Construction
Building and building permit (and building costs) numbers are strong, but rising build costs seem to be keeping things at bay. The county is reporting 112 permits (not including city permits) for the Spring & Summer season. Not having historical data, I’ll use sales data to make a point;

2020 YTD has seen 145 sales built in 2019 and 2020.
2019 saw 175 sales built in 2018 and 2019.
2007 saw 302 sales that were built in 2006 and 2007.

Past Predictions
I’ll bet that the market will outpace my 600 land sales prediction by year end, possibly by a significant margin. This is historical. After all, 2007 (my universal point of reference) saw only 626 land sales. While digging through past posts I found an article I wrote in 2016 about the potential impacts of the 2016 Presidential election. The post didn’t have much to do with elections at all (I think the point was that elections don’t usually impact real estate) but more with Real Estate cycles in general. It quoted a Harvard article written by Teo Nicolais talking about market cycles. Using his methodology (barring any major interruption such as global war) we should be in the midst of a Hypersupply phase on the cusp of a slowdown with rents on the verge of dropping. This is clearly not the case, but I would certainly call the Covid-19 pandemic a “major interruption”. No, it hasn’t slowed real estate or refinances with historic rates, but I would argue that it has slowed construction and speculative real estate as a result. If construction costs don’t come down, or worse, continue to rise, will this create (or continue to inflate) a bubble? Possibly. It all depends on how the market reacts to the increasing prices and sales volume such as that data provided above.

On that note… (Sorry, I’ve got to say it) – It is a great time to consider selling NOW. If it’s in the cards, let us provide some data to help. It’s easy, free, and no one in our firm is pushy. Learn More Here.

The (Summer) 2020 Real Estate Craze

August 16, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I try not to write articles about market statistics. It creates references in time that may not be relevant a year from now, or even a month from now. I am working with a customer as I write this that brought up an article I wrote back in 2012, and how much things have changed. It goes back to using old real estate data to value something today. Appraisers like to use the most recent data possible, and rarely look at anything over a year old. There’s a good reason for that. With the above said, let’s get into it.

What’s Happening? If you are reading this article today, I don’t have to tell you how crazy the real estate market is. If you are reading this article 8 years from now, it’s crazy. Everything is flying off the shelf. To put things into perspective, In 2019 there were 281 land sales throughout Teton Valley. Year-to-date we’ve had 189. This isn’t that crazy. Add in the number of pending transactions and that number jumps to 292 – and August isn’t even over yet. There are over 100 contracts on vacant land out there today. Here’s another one. In 2019 there were 21 sales throughout Teton Valley in excess of $1m. YTD there have been 15, but there are 20 pending sale. I can do this in pretty much every sector of the real estate market.

What Caused This? I think it’s pretty clear that COVID-19 has something to do with it. People flocking to rural America is a conversation I’m almost tired of having. I thought about naming the article in the name of the catalyst – but I’m not even going to go there. This is a touchy subject that has impacted millions of people. Regardless, I’m sure we are in a little bit of a perfect storm. Another thing I’ll hate to admit for future readers sifting through old material, interest rates are at historic lows. Even the interest rates are tied to the pandemic, however. Teton Valley was waiting to be discovered? Yeah, we’ve been saying that for a long time. I wrote an article not long ago about the common comparison of the future of Teton Valley to the next Park City or Sun Valley. In that article, I basically made a claim that we have too much available land and we were quite a ways off from that happening. Now I remember why I don’t make predictions.

What’s Going to Happen? Hey, I just said I don’t want to make predictions. I will provide a few scenarios, however.

Scenario 1: We do become the next big destination. Targhee expands, all of those 3500 building sites throughout the Valley that everyone said would never get purchased are snatched up. Construction goes wild, and commercial expands. Teton Valley becomes as recognizable as Sun Valley.

Scenario 2: All of the bad stuff happening in the world catches up to us, and gets us back into reality. Everyone working from home and moving to Teton Valley realizes that we do have a Winter season, and it is a long one. Inventory levels creep back up and the market stabilizes, or sags.

Scenario 3: We know there is turmoil in the economy, but not all economic downturns impact real estate. After all, most historic data shows that since the 50s or so, we really only had one drop in real estate prices, and that was in 2007. It’s fresh in my mind because that was a big chunk of my career, so that probably always causes me to be conservative or even pessimistic in some fashion or another. Anyway, certain areas of the Valley are changed forever. All of the golf clubs become more exclusive, and the high-end real estate becomes less obtainable. Many of these land purchases remain vacant land, but residential inventory rises over time. Those city dwellers tired of winter adds to that inventory, and the market stabilizes, or at least normalizes. Real estate prices aren’t dramatically affected because construction costs remain high, and much of the land purchased today is redistributed into the market over the next generation. COVID-19 and the Summer of 2020 changes the landscape of Teton Valley forever, and traffic increases with visitors who have finally discovered our beautiful home.

Remember, I don’t make predictions. But if somebody gave me all three of these options, I think this is the one I would probably put my money on.

Land Inspections

June 13, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I’m not sure if it’s how busy things are or the increase in the number of land transactions equating to an increase of things I haven’t seen before, but I sure have seen an uptick of strange inspection findings. Over the course of my career, I’ve bumped into town parcels without connectivity to a sewer line, sinkholes because of buried cars, a number of buried fuel tanks, concerns over oil spills, hillside geotechnical concerns and more. As one might expect, I’ve also run the gamut with discussions on radon, bugs, covenants and restrictions, easements and so on. However, lately, I’ve even bumped into a few more. Bedrock preventing a typical septic install, extraordinary deep wells and artesian wells and springs are a few examples. One thing is for sure (although not as geographically interesting as Yellowstone), Teton Valley has some diverse terrain with nuances that one may not normally consider. I suppose it all depends on what one might be used to in terms of the nuances of their area, but even I would not have predicted bedrock in areas of the Teton Valley.

The above being said, it’s important to do your research. Remember that as agents, we are not experts in geography, terrain, practicing law, interpreting title and so forth. Real estate agents negotiate real estate transactions, and that includes negotiating due diligence and inspection periods for buyers to better understand and research the property they intend to buy.

Unfortunately, it’s almost impossible to plan for every situation that may arise when purchasing land with plans to build. One of the benefits (although not a guarantee) of purchasing a pre-existing home is the fact that many of the potential problems either did not arise, or have been resolved. Another tip to consider when buying land is purchasing in a subdivision. Although I have bumped into properties within subdivisions that still had special wetland requirements or septic problems, it’s less likely. With the growing demand for properties that are not in a subdivision, it’s important to also consider the fact that subdivisions have likely already been through a preliminary set of county or city required engineering reports, soil testing and so on.

The moral of the story, and the theme for many of my articles is; do your research!

What is going on with the potential County Zone and Code changes?

March 9, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

The county is currently working through a land development code update. They have drafted an initial code, and are currently in the stages of the public review and comment for the draft code. There are some big proposed changes, but what do they mean?

Teton County’s comprehensive plan, zoning, land use and development codes can be a lot to understand. I often have to find ways to articulate information and provide data in an efficient way without being overbearing, similar to situations when I am working with a first-time home buyer. I’m going to try to explain the new proposed zoning changes in this article, saving the development and code changes for another day.

WHAT IS IT NOW?

The County (not City limits) is currently made up of two main types of zoning, A-2.5 and A-20 zones. Most of the areas South of Victor and North or East of State Highway 33 are A-2.5, and most everything else (save for a few areas along the foothills) is A-20. It’s roughly 50-50. What does that mean? It’s pretty simple. A-2.5 has a minimum density requirement of one house & guest house per 2.5 acres, and A-20 is 20 acres. There are a few other zoning categories, mostly related to industrial and commercial use.

WHAT IS PROPOSED?

Aside from the commercial zones, there are five new zoning types proposed. Keeping in mind that the number represents the minimum density requirement per residence, they are as follows: A “Rural Agriculture” 35 acre zone replaces most of what used to be the A-20. A second 35 acre “Wetland” zone is similar, presumably with stricter development guidelines due to its location within wetland areas, mostly in the watershed East of the Teton River. A “Foothill” 10-acre zone encompasses most of the surrounding foothills, which would take the place of the previous 2.5 acres zone in many areas. A rural neighborhood 20 acres zone is built around the areas East of Driggs to accommodate future development, and finally, the highest density zone is a “Rural Neighborhood” 5 acre zone that would encompass the Fox Creek area between Victor and Driggs and the Hastings Lane are between Driggs and Tetonia, both mostly limited to areas East of State Highway 33.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? This is largely up to interpretation and debate. Unfortunately, it will likely turn into a political debate, but that’s not my purpose here. My interpretation is that it is clear that the density requirements are going to go WAY down. In other words, there will be fewer homes per acre. It will likely decrease the supply of land over time, and increase demand. In theory, this could increase property values in the distant future as existing land is absorbed. At the same token, it will make it challenging for newcomers to the area looking for affordable land. As a property owner, I see both the upside and downside. I do not own any large farm tracts so I am not affected by land development challenges. I also feel that many of our building sites are more affordable than they should be, considering the recreational market status of our community. However, that is mostly attributed to the perception of oversupply (and construction costs), which I have discussed in previous articles, and will discuss further in future ones.

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