Local Info Archives - Page 13 of 34

How many vacant building sites are there? (Really)

November 14, 2019 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I’ve been reading a number of articles lately referencing the impact all of the development in the late 2000s had on Teton Valley. Many of these articles compare today’s potential problems with those of the subdivision development era. Glampgrounds, RV parks, and certainly any further land development have been targets, often for good reason. While I agree that the amount of development that occurred in the late 2000s was extreme, I believe that the perceived impact and comparison to some of these other projects is also extreme, and in many cases exaggerated. I’ve heard numbers from 7000 to 16000 undeveloped building lots in Teton Valley which off the cuff, sounded high to me. So, I decided to investigate.

My first thought was that I would have to find a list of the available subdivisions, add up the number of lots in each, and subtract lots with improvements. This seemed like a daunting task. Fortunately, I learned that Rob Marin, the county’s extremely talented GIS coordinator had already done the heavy lifting. He based his analysis on subdivision lots, which is exactly what I would have done. After all, the purpose of the comparison and root of the problem is indeed subdivision lots. He determined (with a small margin of error) that there are 8,454 subdivision lots in the county, and that 3106 had improvements as of the date of Rob’s study, leaving 5,348 vacant subdivision lots in the county.

***Now might be a great time to read one of my past articles, With so many available building sites, why is it so hard to find what I am looking for?

Admittedly, this sounds like a lot. It is a lot. The question is, and point of my article; is the number of vacant building sites really as detrimental and overwhelming as it appears and is made to sound? Here are a few points from the devil’s advocate, speaking in generalities.

1) Some subdivisions really do, in my opinion, exist in a vacuum. What happens in or with them really doesn’t have very much impact on the rest of the real estate market. Example: Tributary, FKA Huntsman Springs. There are roughly 500 vacant building sites in Tributary. This is almost 10% of the 5,000 vacant building sites mentioned. The same goes for many other large-scale developments such as River Rim Ranch. Could it be construed that these developments are problems in and of themselves? Sure. However, if real estate prices plummeted, or skyrocketed in Tributary, I don’t feel it would have a major impact on the rest of the real estate in Teton Valley.

2) We know that roughly 65% of the available building sites are vacant, or at least have no improvements. There are approximately 300 subdivisions in Teton County. For the sake of making a point, imagine that each of them has roughly 25 lots. Each of those have 8 or 9 houses. A few of those own the neighboring lots. This isn’t the case, but it puts things in perspective.

3) Teton Valley is big. If you start breaking this down by quadrant, for example, the southeast corner of the valley (better known as Victor) doesn’t really have a problem as there are relatively few subdivisions with little to no improvements. Things are much closer to the scenario I outlined in point 2 above, if not better. Yes, I know there’s a counterpoint to every point I’ve made here. Some of the big subdivisions that are mostly vacant are considered to be the biggest part of the problem. The issue isn’t necessarily consistent across the board as mentioned in point 2, and while things are looking pretty good in Driggs and Victor, Tetonia has a huge ratio of some of these subdivisions with very few, or no homes at all. In any case, it is what it is. They are what they are, and they’ll sell when they sell. We can’t take away land from those who invested in a piece of Teton Valley just because we now recognize that things got carried away a decade ago. As a final point, throughout the course of my career, there have always been approximately 500 building sites on the market at any given time. I suspect that isn’t going to change anytime soon, so I’m not particularly worried about extreme changes with respect to value. The key takeaway is that there are a few (several) problem subdivisions out there. However, in most cases they are being farmed, waiting for their moment to become a neighborhood. I believe in responsible growth, and hope we can learn from mistakes relative to oversupply and over-development, but I hope past mistakes don’t prevent Teton Valley from growing responsibly.

Manufactured vs. Modular, What’s the Difference?

October 16, 2019 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

With building costs continuing to rise, the popularity (or at least the idea) of prefab homes also continues to grow. As a result, I have seen an increase in interest for land that will accommodate these types of homes. However, there seems to be some confusion as to what “these types” of homes are, and what the differences are between manufactured vs modular homes. This confusion has lead some subdivision homeowners associations disallowing anything but stick-built, and has made it difficult for those interested in anything other than a stick-built home to find suitable land.

I’ll save the difficulties and challenges finding suitable land for another post, but I would like to dive into the differences between these types of homes to help shed some light on the issue. Note that some of this is subject to my own experience and opinion. Also, the terms associated with the different types of homes tends to vary by region.

Manufactured: This can be confusing because a manufactured home is prefabricated just like its modular counterpart. Manufactured homes, however, are built in compliance with FEDERAL HUD manufactured home construction and safety standards. They usually have a metal frame which serves as the floor system, as well as the frame for the transportation system. They then can be set on a permanent foundation, but don’t necessarily have to be. These types of homes have transportation size limitations. This is often where you hear the phrase “double wide”, meaning two finished portions of the house that are put together on one permanent foundation at a later date.

Modular: As defined by the State of Idaho division of building safety, a modular building is any building other than a manufactured home that is entirely or substantially prefabricated or assembled at a place other than the building site. I would personally add: Modular homes have construction standards set by local, as opposed to federal regulation. The easiest and best explanation I have seen is that modular homes cannot be moved. It is feasible that a manufactured home could be split, or picked off its foundation, moved to another foundation and placed or reassembled. (Note that when I say “cannot be moved” I have to be careful here, knowing that even stick built homes can be moved.) Sometimes modular home companies create their own category of homes such as a “phased built” or “systems built” to further differentiate and separate their product from a manufactured home. However, in my opinion, these are one in the same as modular. A modular home doesn’t have to be completed in major sections. It could be completed in wall sections and assembled on a permanent foundation. They would normally be transported on a flatbed trailer as opposed to a trailer integrated with the structure.

For further clarification; in my opinion, the following are all forms of modular homes, all of which would be subject to local building codes and inspections which would later receive a standard certificate of occupancy:

– a tiny home built in a factory or shop and delivered to a permanent foundation that conforms to local building codes and receives inspections similar to those required for stick built homes.

– a home constructed in small sections (such as individual walls) potentially with pre-installed siding, floor systems and precut materials installed on a permanent foundation.

– a “kit” home delivered in panelized sections installed permanent foundation.

RV’s: To make matters more confusing, we are beginning to see a rise in popularity of RV style tiny homes that can later be converted to permanent structures. Again, much of this is all subject to local and federal laws. A company building a custom home classified as an RV with wood siding and residential windows would need to comply with Transportation Department requirements in order to be legally transported, but this type of dwelling (RV) may have challenges in obtaining local zoning approval. For example, RVs can often only be parked in one location for storage, and if they are going to be used as a dwelling, can usually only be done so temporarily. In addition, parking an RV may require a special permit.

Idaho Division of Building Safety information for Tiny Houses, Manufactured Homes, Modular Buildings & Recreational Vehicles can be found HERE.

To be continued: Suitable land for manufactured or mobile homes and RVs.

Is it a good time to buy?

May 15, 2019 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Any good economist, salesperson, or real estate agent will always tell you up front; “I don’t have a crystal ball.” I don’t view this as a disclosure to cover one’s rear, but more a statement to get you thinking about both sides of an equation. With that, I don’t have a crystal ball, but I am going to do my best to make a recommendation.

Home prices continue to rise, the real estate market is booming, but these cycles don’t last forever. Even in times of recession, history shows us that markets recover, and thrive. I have to remind people that those who purchased a home in 2007 would very likely be in good shape today. We witnessed one of the deepest recessions in American history, yet here we are, 10 years later. If you would have purchased a home in 2007, your interest rate likely would have been somewhere between 6 and 7%. This seems high, but based on the past 50 years, it’s not bad. Sure, there are other equations. Those with an 18% interest rate in the early 80s could have refinanced over time. They also may have experienced a higher rate of appreciation.

Regardless, for the first time in history, rates have been below 5% for nearly 10 years, and this probably won’t last forever. The rate of inflation will likely increase as the strong economy continues, which will result in increasing interest rates to create balance for that rising inflation.

With that, I’m going to run a quick hypothetical. Let’s say you are buying a home and obtaining a loan for $400,000. The interest rates for a 30 year loan today are favorable, in the low 4% range. I’ll use 4.25%. The total cost of the loan, if you didn’t make any additional payments, would be about $708,000 over 30 years. Now, let’s say home values come down. You are able to buy the same home for $350,000 in a few years’ time, but interest rates are 6%. The total cost of the loan is $755,000 in this scenario.

To be fair, the above scenario isn’t totally realistic. Most people don’t own a home for the entire duration of their mortgage. I believe the median tenure living in a home is somewhere around 10 years. If we run the same scenario, and add up the payments over those 10 years, your balance owed at the end of 2030 with the first scenario would be around $300,000 and $280,000 in the second scenario. If you were to take into account the payments you would have made (as opposed to renting) between buying a house now, and if, and when the prices reduce in the future, you would likely be in the same boat. Things would also begin to swing in your favor the longer you own the home.

We don’t know if prices will decrease. We also don’t know if interest rates will rise. For all we know, home prices could come down along with interest rates, or home prices could increase along with interest rates. If trends continue, the latter is more likely to happen. If I run the same scenario with an increased purchase price and a higher interest rate, things get ugly.

We all have our own budget, limits on what we should spend, or even circumstances where it is not the right financial move to invest in a home. Do your best to weigh the pros AND cons. Educate yourself with respect to current interest rates, home prices and values. If it all adds up, then yes, it is my opinion that it is the right time to buy.

Map Your Listings!

April 19, 2019 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

For this week’s article I wanted to talk a little bit about marketing. Specifically, listing mapping, how it works, and how it can drastically affect your listing.

I am constantly in some sort of web development phase. I monitor our own website and it’s performance, look at competitor sites, as well as listing sites like Zillow. As a refresher, your listing, and how it appears on these sites is directly linked to how your Realtor enters the data into their local MLS.

Accurately entering this data is important not only for mapping purposes, but property features. For example, if your property has a Teton view, you need to make sure that your agent checks the box under the view category that the property has a Teton view. If the data isn’t entered correctly your listing isn’t going to show up for those using specific search filters. It’s amazing how many agents don’t enter this data correctly, especially once you get into the Idaho Falls market… Sorry guys, it’s true.

Back to mapping and its importance. Just like customers using filters to look for properties, many customers (if not most) used some sort of map feature to search for real estate. Like inconsistencies with property features, it’s amazing how many real estate agents don’t properly map their (your) listings. Almost every MLS tries to map listings automatically, and there is a second step available to verify the location of each listing entry. Because we are in a rural area, many listings are either not mapped by this system at all, or mapped improperly. All of the websites that display your listing receive their data from each MLS in simple data feeds. These feeds include property features, acreage, square feet and so forth. The mapping data, however, is provided in latitude and longitude coordinates. If a listing is properly mapped, these coordinates are sent to the secondary website like Zillow. If they aren’t, a variety of things can happen, none of which are good for your listing.

The primary result for most advertising websites if coordinates are not available is to not display them on maps at all. This is the case with Zillow. The listing is still available in the “list” view, which is why you’ll see your listing come up, and many agents don’t realize the mistake they have made. The other result, which is the case on websites like mine, is that these listings are still displayed on the map, but in the wrong location. This can be a minor issue since my website tries to generate it’s own coordinates based on the address, but it can also be a major issue for listings that don’t have an address or haven’t been mapped by Google, many land listings fall under this category. These listings can show up and very odd places, Africa for example. Arguably this is better than not having it display at all, but still a pretty big issue. As we approach the sale season, it might be good to review your listing with your agent, and verify that it is being mapped properly, and that is translating properly to sites like Zillow.

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