Teton County, Wyoming Archives

Are Public Lands Guaranteed?

July 1, 2025 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I have always been an advocate for providing clear information, but never guarantees. I always lead opinions with a pretty clear statement that “my opinion is”… That being said, one of the assurances none of us ever expected to change was public lands and how they can create open space for properties that are adjacent.

While adjacent public land or public land access is generally viewed as a major selling point or benefit (even in the absence of what I’m about to dig into), it can also have its downsides. For example, living near an access or trailhead could create an increase in motorized or non-motorized traffic which could lead to privacy or sound concerns. Notwithstanding, I generally feel that these types of annoyances are limited compared with the broader scope of being fortunate enough to live next to these recreation access points.

Though we have always assumed these lands would remain public in perpetuity, we recently witnessed a quiet, but far reaching proposal on the Federal level come into the spotlight that might change how we think about public lands moving forward. Tucked into a sweeping budget reconciliation bill AKA the “One Big Beautiful Bill” or (OBBBA) was language that may have required the US Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management to offer millions of acres of federal land for sale, much of which was adjacent to private property, particularly in the Teton Valley.

Fortunately, this section of the bill was met with massive opposition from conservation groups, outdoor Advocates, and private citizens. As a result, the land sale Provisions have since been removed from the Senate bill. At the time of this writing, there is no mandate to sell public land, at least as I interpret it. However, there are still some concerning aspects in the broader bill. They include Provisions that could affect land use and access including logging, oil and gas leases and reduced environmental oversight. In addition, just because this aspect of the bill was modified and removed, does not mean that it could resurface in the future.

All of this is a good reflection point for those of us in the real estate industry, or those that are interested in real estate or own real estate near public lands. Buyers will continue to be drawn to properties that border national forest or BLM because of the perceived open space permanence. We view it as an unbuildable buffer, unlimited open space and boundless Recreation opportunities. It’s important, however, to know that federal land boundaries can shift. BLM parcels, in particular, can be swapped, sold or least. While I view National Forest as much more immune to change, nothing is a guarantee, in my eyes as mentioned above. While unlikely, I think it’s something to reflect on. For those interested in real estate, we always recommend:

– Review designations such as Wilderness, National Forest, BLM, etc.

– Verify access, types of access, permitted juices and any known planning actions by contacting County officials and public land agencies

– Understand that public land status is subject to policy and political change

Public land is one of our Region’s greatest assets. For now, fortunately, the effort to sell it off has been stopped. Whether you are a buyer, landowner or simply a neighbor to these great assets, it’s worth remembering, things can change. Stewardship starts with staying informed, and advocating for our region’s great assets.

Summer 2024 Market Update

July 13, 2024 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Since this is technically a blog article and my market updates live in a separate section over at TetonValleyRealty.com, I’m going to treat this market update more like a blog post, just to convey my general feelings and sentiment of the market.

Residential

The residential sector of the market in Teton Valley and surrounding counties (Teton County, Wyoming and Lincoln County, Wyoming) all share similar attributes and challenges, though at different price points.

Dare I call any sector of the residential market “starter homes” (considering the average residential sales price in the Teton regional MLS is well over a million bucks) this sector of the market seems to be accumulating the most days on market and is faced with the greatest challenges. Why? Back to that average sales price. While the average sales price in communities like Teton Valley and Alpine are under 1m, they are still big numbers. Combined with interest rates which remain stubbornly high, we are beginning to see Summer price reductions. In other words, residential listings priced under 1.2m in the bedroom communities or maybe 2m in the Jackson area (which generally excludes the luxury/second home market), are faced with the most difficult sector of the market today. Despite this seemingly grim data for Sellers, inventory is still extremely limited, and opportunities that fit the bill for most consumers are still few and far between.

The luxury market in all sectors (once again, at different price points depending on the micro market) seems to still be churning along, if impacted by nothing other than increasing inventory, primarily due to more builders jumping into the game, or at least focusing on projects of this caliber. Many similar models I have sold for builders have crept up ever so slightly in terms of price, but the market seems to be fairly stable. Summer inventory does seem to be further increasing, which could have a slight impact as the market stabilizes from the short-term yet jarring effects of the Teton pass closing, and the speculation of long-term closure, now behind us.

Condos and townhouses are certainly plentiful, but inventory is slowly being absorbed. While I felt we were at a high point in terms of supply towards the end of last year and into the Spring, it does seem that that market is stabilizing.

Predictions; to summarize, it’s obviously still difficult to see where the general economy takes us with inflation seeming to cool but interest rates remaining stubborn. For those that have been waiting to jump in, the message from many of the lenders in the marketplace has been to jump in now while Sellers in the “starter home” price point are vulnerable, taking advantage of lower interest rates when a refinance is realistic. That sentiment may have been a little premature a year ago, but it does seem that inflation is cooling and rates are likely to soon decrease. The “covid craze” seems to be subsiding, and some sellers appear to be faced with, and accepting reality in that regard. I know that many Buyers are waiting for a correction, but from my perspective, I hear fewer that believe this is soon to happen than those that think it won’t happen anytime soon.

Land

I have long said that the land market seemed to have stabilized towards the end of 2021, with the tremendous gains capped by new inventory and market stabilization. I still see small spikes and valleys in those trends in specific areas, the Teton view corridor is a good example. Ample supply (though unusual in these areas) can reduce overall prices, while limited availability can have the opposite effect, but in an even more dramatic way. Other parcels with some form of unusual feature can also benefit from limited supply, such as industrial zoned land, land without covenants and restrictions, land with interesting terrain, water features, trees or otherwise have all seen greater increases. Some areas, however, have seen greater instances of stabilization or even a slowdown, particularly those that lack any unique aspects or reside in communities with strict guidelines that require more expensive builds.

Construction

As an aside and in line with the last sentence above, construction costs have remained surprisingly resilient to cooling and inflation. While some materials have reduced in cost, others have increased. Subcontractors are showing no signs of slowing down in terms of cost increases, which tells me that there is still plenty of work on the horizon. Many local governments have been inundated with new custom and speculative bills and just like the huge cost increases in terms of construction costs keeping new projects at bay, the difficulty in obtaining building permits, combined with stubborn construction costs has kept new inventory from exploding. It’s frustrating for builders and investors, but it’s probably keeping the market under control at the same time.

A Short and Sweet Update on Targhee Expansion Plans

February 2, 2024 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

It’s always in and out of the rumor mill, so I decided to attend a Board of County Commissioners meeting jointly between Teton County Wyoming and Idaho – Grand Targhee is an inholding in Wyoming surrounded by National Forest, but accessed from Driggs, Idaho.

Teton County Idaho’s Rob Marin gave an overview of the expansion proposal plans which included:

– A new lift North of Blackfoot to supplement the existing Blackfoot lift, and a new lift South of Dreamcatcher to supplement the Dreamcatcher lift.
– A proposed restaurant at the top of the Dreamcatcher lift with 6,000 square feet of space, including 3,000 square feet of open deck.
– A proposed restaurant at the top of the Sacagawea lift with 6,500 square feet of space, including 2,000 square feet of open deck.
– An additional phase, referred to as the “Mono Trees,” which includes approximately 6,000 acres of expansion below the recently installed Colter lift, as well as additional expansion South of the Colter lift referred to as the “South Bowl” expansion.
– Tree grading (or removal) and snowmaking, which would be a first for Grand Targhee.
– Converting the main Dreamcatcher open lift to a gondola hybrid AKA “chondola”.

The revised expansion proposals have come on the heels of the recently installed Colter lift which was previously designated as a cat skiing area. Concerns expressed by those on the Idaho side included water consumption for snow making and wildlife migration in the proposed Mono Trees and South Bowl expansion areas. Teton County, Idaho also expressed support of Grand Targhee Resort as an economic partner, but affirmed concerns about the scale of the proposal and its impacts. The largest public concerns included wildlife, scenery, traffic and parking, social economic impacts such as housing, labor supply and public services as well as recreation impacts including those impacts to backcounty skiing.

A link to the county meeting can be found here.

Rental Analysis – How do I understand Rates and Projections?

November 11, 2023 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

There is a lot to unpack here, and it’s important to know that rental markets change extremely quickly in the scheme of things. While COVID played a significant role in the short-term rental industry and our market locally, the long-term rental industry has been evolving at a fast pace as well. I’ve made some market predictions about both industries over the years and despite the outcome one thing is for sure, you don’t necessarily rely on what you hear today, because it’s inevitably (almost) always yesterday’s news.

Valuation
When it comes to valuing real estate, real estate agents (not appraisers and not offering appraisals) and appraisers use similar methods which include different types of valuation. The easiest, and most common is the comparable sale method. We essentially adjust the sales price of comparable properties based on differences between the property we are valuing and the property that has actually sold. Obviously markets change, so we generally don’t look back further than 6 or 12 months. The sales information is normally available mostly as a courtesy of the multiple listing service, a database of sales activity stored by local Realtor associations. Since Idaho is a non-disclosure state, counties often find difficulty valuing property for the purpose of tax assessment, so the public data is often skewed.

Depending on the area, rental data may be collected by a multiple listing service. However, in our area, it is not. The reason for this is based on several factors, but in my opinion it is primarily because Idaho does not require licensure for property managers. For this reason, property managers in the Teton Valley area are generally not members of listing services or Realtor associations, so they do not record the data. Even in Wyoming where property management does require a real estate license, much of the data goes unrecorded. So, how is the data tracked? Depending on whether we are talking about short-term or long-term rentals, there is some data that might be available, but often, you need to take it with a grain of salt.

Short-Term Rental Analysis
Much like the Zillow “Zestimate”, there are “data mining” companies and tools available that can help generate valuations even without multiple listing service data. Because Idaho is a non-disclosure state, Zillow does not have access to sales data. They do, however, have access to listing price data. Presumably when a property sells (even though Zillow may not have access to the actual sales price), they can make some assumptions based on market conditions, how long the property was on market before it sold and other metrics to estimate (or zestimate…) the sales price to help generate the “Zestimate”. There are similar tools available in the short-term rental industry available such as AirDNA and other data providers that are able to collect data. While I’m not an expert on AirDNA, my assumption is that they collect data from their own subscribers that report information, as well as data they receive from some of the marketplace giants like Airbnb and VRBO. I also assume that this data may be skewed based on what they receive. If it’s just a blocked calendar, one probably should not assume that it is necessarily a paying guest since it could certainly be a homeowner blocking their own calendar for personal use. Even though this data may in some instances be conservative, this is my best guess as to why we often find AirDNA provides data that may be unattainable in the real world (here in Teton Valley).

Long-Term rental analysis
This one is even more challenging. Not only are property managers not typically a member of the multiple listing service, but they rarely collaborate. This, coupled with the seasonality of long-term rentals (and short-term rentals, for that matter), can create some volatile expectations for both investors and tenants. Many years ago before the market hardly began to improve after the fallout in 2008, I distinctly recall many conversations with those trying to prepare studies and gathering data in order to do so. Similar to my life today, I was completely underwater trying to provide this data as a courtesy, often off the top of my head. While I’m generally pretty good at doing so, and can spit out fairly accurate information, it’s unlikely that any of the data was extremely scientific when it came to absorption, rates, and so on. While short-term rentals at least have some available information that might point to market conditions such as National software providers like Airbnb or VRBO, the local rental market does not. As a result, long-term tenants often find themselves jumping from property manager to manager and newspaper ad to marketplace listing to get a grasp on inventory, or lack thereof. I will give a shout out and link below a great effort set forth by the Community Resource Center of Teton Valley. They (painstakingly I’m sure) canvas the most well-known sources for long-term rental listings throughout the community and compile them into one list. It’s not perfect, and not up to date to the minute, but it’s pretty darn good.

The bottom line? When it comes to understanding rental markets in Teton Valley, trust your local professionals. While Realtors have a pretty good handle on most things around here (really, the local industry is lucky to have such a hardworking, professional and honest group) not all of them are heavily involved with property management. The best advice that I can give is to trust local property management companies. Similar to our group of real estate professionals in the area, all of the property managers in Teton Valley are extremely well versed and honest. Since I’m listing shout-outs (and yes, I do have an interest at stake here), Kerstyn at Teton Valley Property Management is amongst the very best.

Community Resource Center of Teton Valley

Teton Valley Property Management

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