Teton County, Wyoming Archives

Summer 2024 Market Update

July 13, 2024 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Since this is technically a blog article and my market updates live in a separate section over at TetonValleyRealty.com, I’m going to treat this market update more like a blog post, just to convey my general feelings and sentiment of the market.

Residential

The residential sector of the market in Teton Valley and surrounding counties (Teton County, Wyoming and Lincoln County, Wyoming) all share similar attributes and challenges, though at different price points.

Dare I call any sector of the residential market “starter homes” (considering the average residential sales price in the Teton regional MLS is well over a million bucks) this sector of the market seems to be accumulating the most days on market and is faced with the greatest challenges. Why? Back to that average sales price. While the average sales price in communities like Teton Valley and Alpine are under 1m, they are still big numbers. Combined with interest rates which remain stubbornly high, we are beginning to see Summer price reductions. In other words, residential listings priced under 1.2m in the bedroom communities or maybe 2m in the Jackson area (which generally excludes the luxury/second home market), are faced with the most difficult sector of the market today. Despite this seemingly grim data for Sellers, inventory is still extremely limited, and opportunities that fit the bill for most consumers are still few and far between.

The luxury market in all sectors (once again, at different price points depending on the micro market) seems to still be churning along, if impacted by nothing other than increasing inventory, primarily due to more builders jumping into the game, or at least focusing on projects of this caliber. Many similar models I have sold for builders have crept up ever so slightly in terms of price, but the market seems to be fairly stable. Summer inventory does seem to be further increasing, which could have a slight impact as the market stabilizes from the short-term yet jarring effects of the Teton pass closing, and the speculation of long-term closure, now behind us.

Condos and townhouses are certainly plentiful, but inventory is slowly being absorbed. While I felt we were at a high point in terms of supply towards the end of last year and into the Spring, it does seem that that market is stabilizing.

Predictions; to summarize, it’s obviously still difficult to see where the general economy takes us with inflation seeming to cool but interest rates remaining stubborn. For those that have been waiting to jump in, the message from many of the lenders in the marketplace has been to jump in now while Sellers in the “starter home” price point are vulnerable, taking advantage of lower interest rates when a refinance is realistic. That sentiment may have been a little premature a year ago, but it does seem that inflation is cooling and rates are likely to soon decrease. The “covid craze” seems to be subsiding, and some sellers appear to be faced with, and accepting reality in that regard. I know that many Buyers are waiting for a correction, but from my perspective, I hear fewer that believe this is soon to happen than those that think it won’t happen anytime soon.

Land

I have long said that the land market seemed to have stabilized towards the end of 2021, with the tremendous gains capped by new inventory and market stabilization. I still see small spikes and valleys in those trends in specific areas, the Teton view corridor is a good example. Ample supply (though unusual in these areas) can reduce overall prices, while limited availability can have the opposite effect, but in an even more dramatic way. Other parcels with some form of unusual feature can also benefit from limited supply, such as industrial zoned land, land without covenants and restrictions, land with interesting terrain, water features, trees or otherwise have all seen greater increases. Some areas, however, have seen greater instances of stabilization or even a slowdown, particularly those that lack any unique aspects or reside in communities with strict guidelines that require more expensive builds.

Construction

As an aside and in line with the last sentence above, construction costs have remained surprisingly resilient to cooling and inflation. While some materials have reduced in cost, others have increased. Subcontractors are showing no signs of slowing down in terms of cost increases, which tells me that there is still plenty of work on the horizon. Many local governments have been inundated with new custom and speculative bills and just like the huge cost increases in terms of construction costs keeping new projects at bay, the difficulty in obtaining building permits, combined with stubborn construction costs has kept new inventory from exploding. It’s frustrating for builders and investors, but it’s probably keeping the market under control at the same time.

A Short and Sweet Update on Targhee Expansion Plans

February 2, 2024 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

It’s always in and out of the rumor mill, so I decided to attend a Board of County Commissioners meeting jointly between Teton County Wyoming and Idaho – Grand Targhee is an inholding in Wyoming surrounded by National Forest, but accessed from Driggs, Idaho.

Teton County Idaho’s Rob Marin gave an overview of the expansion proposal plans which included:

– A new lift North of Blackfoot to supplement the existing Blackfoot lift, and a new lift South of Dreamcatcher to supplement the Dreamcatcher lift.
– A proposed restaurant at the top of the Dreamcatcher lift with 6,000 square feet of space, including 3,000 square feet of open deck.
– A proposed restaurant at the top of the Sacagawea lift with 6,500 square feet of space, including 2,000 square feet of open deck.
– An additional phase, referred to as the “Mono Trees,” which includes approximately 6,000 acres of expansion below the recently installed Colter lift, as well as additional expansion South of the Colter lift referred to as the “South Bowl” expansion.
– Tree grading (or removal) and snowmaking, which would be a first for Grand Targhee.
– Converting the main Dreamcatcher open lift to a gondola hybrid AKA “chondola”.

The revised expansion proposals have come on the heels of the recently installed Colter lift which was previously designated as a cat skiing area. Concerns expressed by those on the Idaho side included water consumption for snow making and wildlife migration in the proposed Mono Trees and South Bowl expansion areas. Teton County, Idaho also expressed support of Grand Targhee Resort as an economic partner, but affirmed concerns about the scale of the proposal and its impacts. The largest public concerns included wildlife, scenery, traffic and parking, social economic impacts such as housing, labor supply and public services as well as recreation impacts including those impacts to backcounty skiing.

A link to the county meeting can be found here.

Rental Analysis – How do I understand Rates and Projections?

November 11, 2023 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

There is a lot to unpack here, and it’s important to know that rental markets change extremely quickly in the scheme of things. While COVID played a significant role in the short-term rental industry and our market locally, the long-term rental industry has been evolving at a fast pace as well. I’ve made some market predictions about both industries over the years and despite the outcome one thing is for sure, you don’t necessarily rely on what you hear today, because it’s inevitably (almost) always yesterday’s news.

Valuation
When it comes to valuing real estate, real estate agents (not appraisers and not offering appraisals) and appraisers use similar methods which include different types of valuation. The easiest, and most common is the comparable sale method. We essentially adjust the sales price of comparable properties based on differences between the property we are valuing and the property that has actually sold. Obviously markets change, so we generally don’t look back further than 6 or 12 months. The sales information is normally available mostly as a courtesy of the multiple listing service, a database of sales activity stored by local Realtor associations. Since Idaho is a non-disclosure state, counties often find difficulty valuing property for the purpose of tax assessment, so the public data is often skewed.

Depending on the area, rental data may be collected by a multiple listing service. However, in our area, it is not. The reason for this is based on several factors, but in my opinion it is primarily because Idaho does not require licensure for property managers. For this reason, property managers in the Teton Valley area are generally not members of listing services or Realtor associations, so they do not record the data. Even in Wyoming where property management does require a real estate license, much of the data goes unrecorded. So, how is the data tracked? Depending on whether we are talking about short-term or long-term rentals, there is some data that might be available, but often, you need to take it with a grain of salt.

Short-Term Rental Analysis
Much like the Zillow “Zestimate”, there are “data mining” companies and tools available that can help generate valuations even without multiple listing service data. Because Idaho is a non-disclosure state, Zillow does not have access to sales data. They do, however, have access to listing price data. Presumably when a property sells (even though Zillow may not have access to the actual sales price), they can make some assumptions based on market conditions, how long the property was on market before it sold and other metrics to estimate (or zestimate…) the sales price to help generate the “Zestimate”. There are similar tools available in the short-term rental industry available such as AirDNA and other data providers that are able to collect data. While I’m not an expert on AirDNA, my assumption is that they collect data from their own subscribers that report information, as well as data they receive from some of the marketplace giants like Airbnb and VRBO. I also assume that this data may be skewed based on what they receive. If it’s just a blocked calendar, one probably should not assume that it is necessarily a paying guest since it could certainly be a homeowner blocking their own calendar for personal use. Even though this data may in some instances be conservative, this is my best guess as to why we often find AirDNA provides data that may be unattainable in the real world (here in Teton Valley).

Long-Term rental analysis
This one is even more challenging. Not only are property managers not typically a member of the multiple listing service, but they rarely collaborate. This, coupled with the seasonality of long-term rentals (and short-term rentals, for that matter), can create some volatile expectations for both investors and tenants. Many years ago before the market hardly began to improve after the fallout in 2008, I distinctly recall many conversations with those trying to prepare studies and gathering data in order to do so. Similar to my life today, I was completely underwater trying to provide this data as a courtesy, often off the top of my head. While I’m generally pretty good at doing so, and can spit out fairly accurate information, it’s unlikely that any of the data was extremely scientific when it came to absorption, rates, and so on. While short-term rentals at least have some available information that might point to market conditions such as National software providers like Airbnb or VRBO, the local rental market does not. As a result, long-term tenants often find themselves jumping from property manager to manager and newspaper ad to marketplace listing to get a grasp on inventory, or lack thereof. I will give a shout out and link below a great effort set forth by the Community Resource Center of Teton Valley. They (painstakingly I’m sure) canvas the most well-known sources for long-term rental listings throughout the community and compile them into one list. It’s not perfect, and not up to date to the minute, but it’s pretty darn good.

The bottom line? When it comes to understanding rental markets in Teton Valley, trust your local professionals. While Realtors have a pretty good handle on most things around here (really, the local industry is lucky to have such a hardworking, professional and honest group) not all of them are heavily involved with property management. The best advice that I can give is to trust local property management companies. Similar to our group of real estate professionals in the area, all of the property managers in Teton Valley are extremely well versed and honest. Since I’m listing shout-outs (and yes, I do have an interest at stake here), Kerstyn at Teton Valley Property Management is amongst the very best.

Community Resource Center of Teton Valley

Teton Valley Property Management

What I’ve Learned About Ice Dams

April 3, 2023 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Every Winter this comes up. As a Realtor and property manager, I’ve had plenty of firsthand experience here. I think the best way to categorize this article is to break it into two parts; prevention during construction, and repair measures to address ice dams that form after construction. First, let’s go over what an ice dam is, and why it occurs.

Ice damming, what is it, and why does it occur?

Most homes have a roof overhang that extends behind the house. The area that extends beyond the house is not heated whereas the area directly above the living area of the home will inevitably realize some heat loss. As that heat rises into the attic space above the ceiling and insulation, it ultimately reaches the bottom side of the roof which will begin to melt the snow on the roof. The water then begins to travel down the roof. As it reaches the unheated portion of the roof overhang, it re-freezes. This is where an ice dam is formed. The longer this occurs, the further the ice backs up towards the heated portion of the roof, possibly finding an entry point for water into the living areas of the home.

New Construction

It’s impossible to predict where or how an ice dam is going to form. However, we can take some preventive steps, and it’s best to pay special attention to the North side of your project where the roof will see the least amount of sun to help melt away snow and ice. The first line of defense is going to be proper soffit and roof ventilation. If you can prevent the residual heat from warming the underside of the roof and melting snow, we can minimize the amount of ice that will form it on the unheated areas of the roof. This can be done a few different ways.

Ventilation

Usually a proper roof ventilation system will include soffit vents on the underside of the unheated roof overhang portion of the roof as well as roof vents near the top or highest point of the roof where rising heat can escape. Normally your insulator will install what are called “baffles” which prevent the insulation that will be later added from covering the vents in the soffit or roof overhang. It is absolutely key that you have this section inspected before and after insulation (if possible) to ensure that the baffles are not crushed or moved during the insulation process, thus covering the vents and not allowing airflow. I have also seen additional venting in gable ends and even power vent fans to help push the warm air out of the attic cavity. Understanding that not all roof designs have an attic, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the roof cannot be ventilated. I have built shed roof style homes and installed plywood to create a small gap the full length of the roof from the bottom end all the way up to the ridge to add a layer of air ventilation just as a precautionary measure, even on a roof that would normally slide snow such as a metal roof.

Insulation

Insulation is one of those sensitive topics with me. I have my own opinions on insulation types and where they are best applied, but I’ll save that for another article. If you do have a home design with an attic, it’s more affordable than you might think to add more insulation than the building code requires. If we can slow down the heat loss into the attic, we can slow down how much snow begins to melt on the underside of the roof. While the code does require substantial insulation in roofs in our area, there’s good reason to consider overdoing it if you’re going to upgrade something.

Ice and water shield

Most builders will install a waterproof membrane from the roof’s edge beyond the habitable space in the house. As the water backs up, it will be stopped by this impermeable layer, or at least that’s the idea. With every construction job that I’ve been involved with, I’ve opted for ice and water shield on the entire surface of the roof. Yes, this is an added cost. However, ice dams aren’t the only things that cause leaks and the extra insurance might be something to consider.

Existing Construction

The more time you spend in Teton Valley the more you will realize that not every winter is the same. One season might not create any ice damming issues while the next creates significant problems. It’s all about freeze/thaw, temperature, sun, snow load, the list goes on. That being said, almost everybody is going to experience an ice damming problem if they form a long-term relationship with Teton Valley. If you do, I think it’s important to look at causation and repair options.

What is causing the ice dam?

We can go back to the new construction measures to see if they were properly applied with the existing construction. Usually attic spaces are accessible (even though it isn’t very much fun) and those insulation baffles, assuming they exist, can sometimes be inspected after the fact. If one finds that there is no attic ventilation or poor ventilation, roof vents or gable vents can be added after the fact relatively easily. It’s a great time to assess the damage in the Winter months, and be prepared to make repairs in the Summer months when it is safer to do so.

Remedy Option 1, Vents

As mentioned above, roof vents can be installed after the fact. This can be great option to help expel some of the heat out of the attic space. In extreme cases where ventilating the existing roof is impossible, there have been projects (even locally) that have built a replacement roof on top of the existing roof that is ventilated to provide that much needed air gap.

Remedy Option 2, Heat cable

Sometimes heat cable is a necessary evil. We tend to avoid it or turn it off because of the cost, but if it saves us from expensive damages inside our home, it may be the only option available. Heat tape comes in many forms from budget DIY to professionally engineered and installed systems. Further, these systems can be installed with a simple electrical outlet, or hardwired into a 220 volt breaker. The severity of the issue is usually an indicator as to which direction might be best. Either way, remember to extend the heat cable beyond the unheated portion of the roof to above the heated portion for the most effective results.

Remedy Option 3, Shoveling and/or Steaming

Roof shoveling (be sure to consider someone who is insured) can be an easy and effective remedy, especially when an issue is discovered mid-season. In addition, roof steaming is an effective option to remove stubborn ice dams without damaging your roof, but it’s usually an expensive one.

Obviously I am a Realtor, not a builder. Check with your contractor on these ideas, and be careful!

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