Teton Realty Blog

Teton Region Real Estate Market Stats, Articles & News

Covid-19 and its effects on our Market (May 2020)

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In general, I have moved away from market updates when it comes to my real estate blog. We are moving those updates over to the brokerage. If you’d like to receive both, sign up on Teton Valley Realty’s website. I’ll always include the latest blog post. I want to try to keep all of the content for these posts relevant for as long as possible, and markets can change on a moment’s notice. This market update will definitely go down in the history books, so I think it’s appropriate.

The real estate market has remained surprisingly active. I seem to be working harder than ever – you know, when the going gets tough… as they say. I am doing a TON of videos and virtual tours, and surprisingly, have found pretty good success with “sight unseen” contracts. It definitely feels like the younger generation buyers have slowed and taken the issue with a little more concern. On the flip side, older generation buyers have ramped up with an increase in contacts, showings and contracts. I might be making this up, but to some degree, it makes sense. Younger generation buyers probably have more of our local tourism-related jobs, which have been hardest hit. The past several years of expansion have been great for almost everyone, but it would seem that the younger crowd probably hasn’t had as many opportunities to capitalize as those taking advantage of expanding markets and real estate values. On an interesting side note, the younger generation also seems to have a greater level of concern with respect to social distancing and being very careful about guidelines. This seems to contradict what we are hearing in the National news about younger people getting back to everyday life, or ignoring recommendations.

If you know me, I stay away from predictions. If I do make them, they are information-based, and never definitive. That being said, I’m going to guess we are going to see a continuous stream of people hoping to move away from populated areas and into rural America. If it were me, this is the first place I would look. I have read National Real Estate resource predictions of home values dropping 2-4% if things get back to “normal” soon, and 5-6% if things move slower in terms of recovery. I predict that it is less likely that rural areas will see contraction, but if they do, it will be further down the road – probably months after urban areas see an impact.

Virtual Tours

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Back in July, I started to write an article about virtual tours. I do this frequently, losing interest in the article or saving it in my inbox for another day, probably part of the reason why I always have 50 or more emails in my inbox.

I started thinking about the article again in the midst of the current covid-19 virus. Back when I first started thinking about this, the gist of my article was that while I felt virtual tours could help in many cases, they can also hurt. Virtual tours, high quality photographs, drone footage and even videos can be deceiving. As a seller, I might be concerned that someone may not like my home before they even have a chance to see it. As an agent, I want to showcase the great qualities of a listing that I represent, and when possible, I prefer to do that in person. If you know me, you know that I am not, by any stretch of the word, a pushy salesman. I like to think that I point out good qualities, and try to be proactive about finding ways to work around problems for my listings. I also try to recognize when a potential buyer just isn’t interested in a property, and do my best to find something suitable. More than anything, though, I like meeting people. I like shaking hands, and I like getting to know potential clients as we hit the road to explore the beautiful Teton region.

The above being said, I’m curious to see how the current situation will shape the future of the home-buying process. I think, and hope, that things get back to normal. But I also think that our world is changing. Fortunately, I have a pretty good handle on most of the technology available today. We use a number of tools within the brokerage that help us streamline our transactions and processes. I still think that there’s going to be value and bigger demand for virtual tours and videos, but I also think we’re going to have to be careful about how we present media. Sellers are going to rely on us to sell their property, and buyers are going to rely on us to make travel plans to come look at one piece of property, in many cases across the United States or from another country. I believe there is going to be an ever-evolving balance between accurately expressing real estate through virtual media and doing our best to properly represent all of our customers and clients.

What is going on with the potential County Zone and Code changes?

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The county is currently working through a land development code update. They have drafted an initial code, and are currently in the stages of the public review and comment for the draft code. There are some big proposed changes, but what do they mean?

Teton County’s comprehensive plan, zoning, land use and development codes can be a lot to understand. I often have to find ways to articulate information and provide data in an efficient way without being overbearing, similar to situations when I am working with a first-time home buyer. I’m going to try to explain the new proposed zoning changes in this article, saving the development and code changes for another day.

WHAT IS IT NOW?

The County (not City limits) is currently made up of two main types of zoning, A-2.5 and A-20 zones. Most of the areas South of Victor and North or East of State Highway 33 are A-2.5, and most everything else (save for a few areas along the foothills) is A-20. It’s roughly 50-50. What does that mean? It’s pretty simple. A-2.5 has a minimum density requirement of one house & guest house per 2.5 acres, and A-20 is 20 acres. There are a few other zoning categories, mostly related to industrial and commercial use.

WHAT IS PROPOSED?

Aside from the commercial zones, there are five new zoning types proposed. Keeping in mind that the number represents the minimum density requirement per residence, they are as follows: A “Rural Agriculture” 35 acre zone replaces most of what used to be the A-20. A second 35 acre “Wetland” zone is similar, presumably with stricter development guidelines due to its location within wetland areas, mostly in the watershed East of the Teton River. A “Foothill” 10-acre zone encompasses most of the surrounding foothills, which would take the place of the previous 2.5 acres zone in many areas. A rural neighborhood 20 acres zone is built around the areas East of Driggs to accommodate future development, and finally, the highest density zone is a “Rural Neighborhood” 5 acre zone that would encompass the Fox Creek area between Victor and Driggs and the Hastings Lane are between Driggs and Tetonia, both mostly limited to areas East of State Highway 33.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? This is largely up to interpretation and debate. Unfortunately, it will likely turn into a political debate, but that’s not my purpose here. My interpretation is that it is clear that the density requirements are going to go WAY down. In other words, there will be fewer homes per acre. It will likely decrease the supply of land over time, and increase demand. In theory, this could increase property values in the distant future as existing land is absorbed. At the same token, it will make it challenging for newcomers to the area looking for affordable land. As a property owner, I see both the upside and downside. I do not own any large farm tracts so I am not affected by land development challenges. I also feel that many of our building sites are more affordable than they should be, considering the recreational market status of our community. However, that is mostly attributed to the perception of oversupply (and construction costs), which I have discussed in previous articles, and will discuss further in future ones.

Beauty (and investment) is in the eye of the beholder (or investor)

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We can all be easily influenced from time to time, especially when it’s someone that we trust. Our parents, our children, our closest friends, colleagues and co-workers can have an influence on how we live our lives, what we eat, drink, and, how we invest our money.

However, we must remember to rely on the professionals who represent us, or at least hear what they are saying. I trust my attorney with respect to my will, and every time I get a haircut and am asked “What are we doing today?” My response is almost always: “Whatever you think.” Some of you might think that is crazy, but it’s just who I am. We all have a higher priority for certain things in our lives, and some of us really do trust the professionals and their opinion.

I’m working a little bit against the grain with respect to my beliefs in representation and trusting professionals by stating this, but sometimes it can steer us the wrong direction – even if it’s the right choice. That doesn’t make any sense, so here’s an example.

A home is listed for sale at what appears to be a great value. It needs a lot of work, and that is apparent and properly represented. The buyer secures a real estate agent who agrees that the home is a great price despite the issues with the home. The buyer then contacts a home inspector who agrees to perform a home inspection. The home inspector doesn’t know what home values are, but that’s not the inspector’s line of work. No problem here. The inspector performs the inspection and sends a damning report with respect to some of the structural elements of the home. He advises that the buyer withdraw from the contract based on the amount of work required. To be fair, I am not familiar with any home inspectors who would provide advice like this, this is just an example.

The above stated, let’s assume that the home had a fair market value (without any structural problems and a light remodel) of $600,000. The buyer, unbeknownst to the inspector, had a contract secured in the amount of $300,000. The fictitious home inspector’s advice to withdraw from the transaction was based on structural repairs in excess of $100,000, a hefty sum indeed. However, a $300,000 purchase price and even $200,000 worth of structural and aesthetic improvements would leave over $100,000 in potential profit. You can use the same example in different scenarios. Perhaps your friend tells you that they would not advise putting down any more than $1,000 worth of earnest money on a real estate transaction – or they might advise that you offer 20% less than the asking price because that’s what they successfully offered on their home in Oklahoma. Different people have different advice, and all of it should be heard. Just make sure you are paying close attention to the professionals, family or friends with expertise in the specific markets in which you plan to invest. You might make the mistake of withdrawing or losing what might have been an excellent opportunity.

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