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Summer 2024 Market Update

July 13, 2024 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Since this is technically a blog article and my market updates live in a separate section over at TetonValleyRealty.com, I’m going to treat this market update more like a blog post, just to convey my general feelings and sentiment of the market.

Residential

The residential sector of the market in Teton Valley and surrounding counties (Teton County, Wyoming and Lincoln County, Wyoming) all share similar attributes and challenges, though at different price points.

Dare I call any sector of the residential market “starter homes” (considering the average residential sales price in the Teton regional MLS is well over a million bucks) this sector of the market seems to be accumulating the most days on market and is faced with the greatest challenges. Why? Back to that average sales price. While the average sales price in communities like Teton Valley and Alpine are under 1m, they are still big numbers. Combined with interest rates which remain stubbornly high, we are beginning to see Summer price reductions. In other words, residential listings priced under 1.2m in the bedroom communities or maybe 2m in the Jackson area (which generally excludes the luxury/second home market), are faced with the most difficult sector of the market today. Despite this seemingly grim data for Sellers, inventory is still extremely limited, and opportunities that fit the bill for most consumers are still few and far between.

The luxury market in all sectors (once again, at different price points depending on the micro market) seems to still be churning along, if impacted by nothing other than increasing inventory, primarily due to more builders jumping into the game, or at least focusing on projects of this caliber. Many similar models I have sold for builders have crept up ever so slightly in terms of price, but the market seems to be fairly stable. Summer inventory does seem to be further increasing, which could have a slight impact as the market stabilizes from the short-term yet jarring effects of the Teton pass closing, and the speculation of long-term closure, now behind us.

Condos and townhouses are certainly plentiful, but inventory is slowly being absorbed. While I felt we were at a high point in terms of supply towards the end of last year and into the Spring, it does seem that that market is stabilizing.

Predictions; to summarize, it’s obviously still difficult to see where the general economy takes us with inflation seeming to cool but interest rates remaining stubborn. For those that have been waiting to jump in, the message from many of the lenders in the marketplace has been to jump in now while Sellers in the “starter home” price point are vulnerable, taking advantage of lower interest rates when a refinance is realistic. That sentiment may have been a little premature a year ago, but it does seem that inflation is cooling and rates are likely to soon decrease. The “covid craze” seems to be subsiding, and some sellers appear to be faced with, and accepting reality in that regard. I know that many Buyers are waiting for a correction, but from my perspective, I hear fewer that believe this is soon to happen than those that think it won’t happen anytime soon.

Land

I have long said that the land market seemed to have stabilized towards the end of 2021, with the tremendous gains capped by new inventory and market stabilization. I still see small spikes and valleys in those trends in specific areas, the Teton view corridor is a good example. Ample supply (though unusual in these areas) can reduce overall prices, while limited availability can have the opposite effect, but in an even more dramatic way. Other parcels with some form of unusual feature can also benefit from limited supply, such as industrial zoned land, land without covenants and restrictions, land with interesting terrain, water features, trees or otherwise have all seen greater increases. Some areas, however, have seen greater instances of stabilization or even a slowdown, particularly those that lack any unique aspects or reside in communities with strict guidelines that require more expensive builds.

Construction

As an aside and in line with the last sentence above, construction costs have remained surprisingly resilient to cooling and inflation. While some materials have reduced in cost, others have increased. Subcontractors are showing no signs of slowing down in terms of cost increases, which tells me that there is still plenty of work on the horizon. Many local governments have been inundated with new custom and speculative bills and just like the huge cost increases in terms of construction costs keeping new projects at bay, the difficulty in obtaining building permits, combined with stubborn construction costs has kept new inventory from exploding. It’s frustrating for builders and investors, but it’s probably keeping the market under control at the same time.

Rental Analysis – How do I understand Rates and Projections?

November 11, 2023 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

There is a lot to unpack here, and it’s important to know that rental markets change extremely quickly in the scheme of things. While COVID played a significant role in the short-term rental industry and our market locally, the long-term rental industry has been evolving at a fast pace as well. I’ve made some market predictions about both industries over the years and despite the outcome one thing is for sure, you don’t necessarily rely on what you hear today, because it’s inevitably (almost) always yesterday’s news.

Valuation
When it comes to valuing real estate, real estate agents (not appraisers and not offering appraisals) and appraisers use similar methods which include different types of valuation. The easiest, and most common is the comparable sale method. We essentially adjust the sales price of comparable properties based on differences between the property we are valuing and the property that has actually sold. Obviously markets change, so we generally don’t look back further than 6 or 12 months. The sales information is normally available mostly as a courtesy of the multiple listing service, a database of sales activity stored by local Realtor associations. Since Idaho is a non-disclosure state, counties often find difficulty valuing property for the purpose of tax assessment, so the public data is often skewed.

Depending on the area, rental data may be collected by a multiple listing service. However, in our area, it is not. The reason for this is based on several factors, but in my opinion it is primarily because Idaho does not require licensure for property managers. For this reason, property managers in the Teton Valley area are generally not members of listing services or Realtor associations, so they do not record the data. Even in Wyoming where property management does require a real estate license, much of the data goes unrecorded. So, how is the data tracked? Depending on whether we are talking about short-term or long-term rentals, there is some data that might be available, but often, you need to take it with a grain of salt.

Short-Term Rental Analysis
Much like the Zillow “Zestimate”, there are “data mining” companies and tools available that can help generate valuations even without multiple listing service data. Because Idaho is a non-disclosure state, Zillow does not have access to sales data. They do, however, have access to listing price data. Presumably when a property sells (even though Zillow may not have access to the actual sales price), they can make some assumptions based on market conditions, how long the property was on market before it sold and other metrics to estimate (or zestimate…) the sales price to help generate the “Zestimate”. There are similar tools available in the short-term rental industry available such as AirDNA and other data providers that are able to collect data. While I’m not an expert on AirDNA, my assumption is that they collect data from their own subscribers that report information, as well as data they receive from some of the marketplace giants like Airbnb and VRBO. I also assume that this data may be skewed based on what they receive. If it’s just a blocked calendar, one probably should not assume that it is necessarily a paying guest since it could certainly be a homeowner blocking their own calendar for personal use. Even though this data may in some instances be conservative, this is my best guess as to why we often find AirDNA provides data that may be unattainable in the real world (here in Teton Valley).

Long-Term rental analysis
This one is even more challenging. Not only are property managers not typically a member of the multiple listing service, but they rarely collaborate. This, coupled with the seasonality of long-term rentals (and short-term rentals, for that matter), can create some volatile expectations for both investors and tenants. Many years ago before the market hardly began to improve after the fallout in 2008, I distinctly recall many conversations with those trying to prepare studies and gathering data in order to do so. Similar to my life today, I was completely underwater trying to provide this data as a courtesy, often off the top of my head. While I’m generally pretty good at doing so, and can spit out fairly accurate information, it’s unlikely that any of the data was extremely scientific when it came to absorption, rates, and so on. While short-term rentals at least have some available information that might point to market conditions such as National software providers like Airbnb or VRBO, the local rental market does not. As a result, long-term tenants often find themselves jumping from property manager to manager and newspaper ad to marketplace listing to get a grasp on inventory, or lack thereof. I will give a shout out and link below a great effort set forth by the Community Resource Center of Teton Valley. They (painstakingly I’m sure) canvas the most well-known sources for long-term rental listings throughout the community and compile them into one list. It’s not perfect, and not up to date to the minute, but it’s pretty darn good.

The bottom line? When it comes to understanding rental markets in Teton Valley, trust your local professionals. While Realtors have a pretty good handle on most things around here (really, the local industry is lucky to have such a hardworking, professional and honest group) not all of them are heavily involved with property management. The best advice that I can give is to trust local property management companies. Similar to our group of real estate professionals in the area, all of the property managers in Teton Valley are extremely well versed and honest. Since I’m listing shout-outs (and yes, I do have an interest at stake here), Kerstyn at Teton Valley Property Management is amongst the very best.

Community Resource Center of Teton Valley

Teton Valley Property Management

When is the best time to shop for Real Estate in the Teton Valley?

May 2, 2023 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

The best time to shop for real estate in the Teton Valley is totally dependent on a number of factors, as well as the context of the question. When do we typically see most new inventory come to the market? When are sellers usually most inclined to negotiate? I’ll do my best to break these questions down by the numbers using historical data, but I have to first clarify; The best time to purchase real estate in the Teton Valley is when the property you are looking for comes available. I can’t stress enough in our small market the lack of inventory and new listings at any given time. Choices are always limited, particularly when it comes to specialty properties like those with property features like creeks, streams or rolling terrain – as well as homes with guest homes, unique features, or special locations. Buyer should always be in the habit of monitoring the market closely, and jumping on opportunities when they meet one’s needs. That does not mean that buyers need to jump on the first thing that they see, however.

Land

Historical data has been fairly consistent. May and June have been the biggest months for new listings every year looking back to 2018 (and beyond) with the exception of 2020, which I’ll toss out as a result of The pandemic. Listings almost always begin to ramp up in April, and numbers for new listings begin falling in September. Here again, it doesn’t mean that one should not pursue a purchase during any given month. If a listing comes available that meets a specific set of criteria that has been difficult to find, it should be pursued if the price is right and you intend to close on a property within a set timeline. When it comes to the listing / sales price ratio, the data isn’t quite as definitive. However, it seems to point to sellers being more negotiable during the off-season months, particularly October, November and December. Usually an increase in supply decreases demand, but Teton Valley’s peak tourism season is the Summer months, effectively increasing the demand along with the new supply.

Homes

Residential trends seem to trail land trends by about 1 month. Most new listings come to market late Spring and early Summer, with June and July historically being the peak months for the greatest number of new listings coming to market. New inventory once again dwindles during the off-season months, particularly late Fall and early Winter. Historic trends have shown that new listings tend to pick up once again through the Winter peak season, though new listings are far fewer than Spring/Summer. Once again, the data is not as conclusive when it comes to the listing price / sales price ratio with residential properties, but there does seem to be a trend that shows more negotiation during the offseason months, like we were able to see with land sales.

Summary
The data points to more options and greater inventory during the Spring and early Summer months, with more opportunity for negotiation during the offseason, particularly late Fall and early Winter in both market sectors. Source: Teton Board of Realtors – Teton Valley, ID & Alta, WY

Land Inspections

June 13, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I’m not sure if it’s how busy things are or the increase in the number of land transactions equating to an increase of things I haven’t seen before, but I sure have seen an uptick of strange inspection findings. Over the course of my career, I’ve bumped into town parcels without connectivity to a sewer line, sinkholes because of buried cars, a number of buried fuel tanks, concerns over oil spills, hillside geotechnical concerns and more. As one might expect, I’ve also run the gamut with discussions on radon, bugs, covenants and restrictions, easements and so on. However, lately, I’ve even bumped into a few more. Bedrock preventing a typical septic install, extraordinary deep wells and artesian wells and springs are a few examples. One thing is for sure (although not as geographically interesting as Yellowstone), Teton Valley has some diverse terrain with nuances that one may not normally consider. I suppose it all depends on what one might be used to in terms of the nuances of their area, but even I would not have predicted bedrock in areas of the Teton Valley.

The above being said, it’s important to do your research. Remember that as agents, we are not experts in geography, terrain, practicing law, interpreting title and so forth. Real estate agents negotiate real estate transactions, and that includes negotiating due diligence and inspection periods for buyers to better understand and research the property they intend to buy.

Unfortunately, it’s almost impossible to plan for every situation that may arise when purchasing land with plans to build. One of the benefits (although not a guarantee) of purchasing a pre-existing home is the fact that many of the potential problems either did not arise, or have been resolved. Another tip to consider when buying land is purchasing in a subdivision. Although I have bumped into properties within subdivisions that still had special wetland requirements or septic problems, it’s less likely. With the growing demand for properties that are not in a subdivision, it’s important to also consider the fact that subdivisions have likely already been through a preliminary set of county or city required engineering reports, soil testing and so on.

The moral of the story, and the theme for many of my articles is; do your research!

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