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Price Reductions, You’re Doing it Wrong

July 13, 2022 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Who’dve thought we would be discussing price reductions today, with such a crazy market just yesterday. First.. Am I indicating that prices are falling and it’s a buyer’s market? Not necessarily. We are however seeing market stabilization, but some sellers aren’t ready to come to those terms just yet. We are continuing to see listings surge on with new listing prices 5-10% over the last quarter. Many of these listings are sellers that don’t want to leave money on the table, understandably so. The market is moving directions quickly, and none of us want to leave money on the table. In addition, some sellers are listing with “make me move” prices, and there is nothing wrong with that.


With the above said, don’t put yourself at a disadvantage, particularly if selling is a priority, and not just something to take advantage of if the price is right. If your motivations are the former, take a hard look at an analysis provided by a broker to see if it makes sense. As the market stabilizes, many brokers and brokerages are finding themselves with too much overhead and two little selling inventory, which may result in taking listings with unrealistic listing prices, or even providing unrealistic advice, though I hate to admit that it would happen in our community, as most of my colleagues and competitors are, in my opinion, some of the best in the Nation.


Notwithstanding, if you do find yourself in the position to reduce price, do it based on data. In many events we are seeing “panic” reductions, and in some events for properties that are appropriately priced. We all have concerns about the selling season, but don’t reduce too soon.


My second tip, only reduce once. Multiple price reductions lead the market to believe that they should wait for the next reduction. I understand that we don’t know how many times you may need to reduce, hence the need to look at the data closely. Unfortunately we aren’t currently in a position where reducing too much will bring the sales price back over the market value. Regardless, you need to act carefully, but not (too) quickly. Price reductions should be concise, well thought out, and substantial enough that you only do it once – but not so much that you leave money on the table. A good real estate agent will help you plan the starting price appropriately, and provide the data as to how they arrived at the suggested price in a comprehensive way that is also easy to understand in order to make an informed decision.

Interest Rates, Ideas for Buyers and Market Impacts

May 6, 2022 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

It’s no secret, interest rates are definitely on the rise, and likely will continue to do so. It’s interesting hearing about all of the potential impacts. A lender friend of mine provided some good insight recently. Interest rates are still very low from a historical standpoint, and there are still some great ways to minimize the impacts of rising rates. These include mortgage points that come with a variety of options and the ability to have these points negotiated into a transaction or even paid by the seller. A mortgage point is effectively a way to buy down the interest rate up front. This can be a great tool to help buyers keep up with today’s real estate prices, which don’t seem to be going down despite interest rates creeping up. Buying mortgage points can also work well for buyers that intend to keep their loans long-term. Typically a “point” is equivalent to 1% of the purchase price and that will usually reduce the interest rate anywhere from 1/8 to 3/8 of a percent. Other options include a 2-1 (or even a 3-2-1) buy down which reduces the first year by 2 points in the second year by one point, which is where the highest amount of interest is paid on a loan while the principal of balance is still high.

Obviously interest increases are coming as a way to combat inflation, and it’s probably the lesser of two evils. Interestingly, supply chain issues, high building costs and other factors on the supply side are keeping new inventory at bay. Whereas real estate is primarily supply and demand based, this has created an interesting dynamic for both buyers and sellers. Personally, I do believe that the cumulative total of these issues will have an impact on the market, but without the increase of supply, I’m interested to see how much (if any, I should add).

2021 Residential Year End Sales Report

February 16, 2022 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

While the number of residential sales is down compared with 2020, the average sales price is a completely different story. Almost unbelievably, the average sales price in Teton Valley has more than doubled since year end of 2018, and has surged above $1m by the 3rd Q ’21.

Building Costs
Building costs have played a major role with respect to residential home prices, keeping inventory low and not giving spec home builders a confidence to meet the demand of new buyers to the area. It’s hard to quantify how much building costs have risen, but personal experience and interviewing with a few builders confirms my thoughts of somewhere in the range of 50 to 60% since 2020, somewhat consistent with the increase in the average sales price from 2020 to 2021.

2021 Year to Date
As with all market reports it’s important to look at both average sales prices as well as median sales prices that better indicate realistic numbers for middle of the road properties. A few key takeaways include the average sales price growing steadily quarter by quarter in 2021, but the median sales price reducing slightly in the fourth quarter, which is consistent with what we saw with 2021 land sales as well. Here are the numbers:

2021 Average Sales Price
Q1: 694,900
Q2: 966,655
Q3: 1,005,521
Q4: 1,093,040

2021 Median Sales Price
Q1: 558,429
Q2: 664,000
Q3: 724,950
Q4: 649,000

Predictions
This will probably sound a lot like all of those National news articles you’ve been reading, but most expect these unusual market increases as well as demand to subside back to normal rates sometime in 2022 due to supply chains catching up and interest rates increasing. With respect to our micro market, it’s hard to say when that will happen. Building costs remain high, lumber futures are again on the rise, and most builders are backlogged for the next 18 months or more. If we do see stabilization throughout the Nation, my suspicion is that it will take some time for Teton Valley to follow suit.

2020 Real Estate Market Report & Past Predictions

November 29, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

# Sales
Earlier this summer I wrote about the sudden market craze and it’s impact on land sales. Then, there were 292 (August 16th) land sales with around 100 more pending sale.  I predicted by year end we would hit 600 sales in Teton Valley & Alta. We’ve hit 582 as of this writing with 100 more pending sale. We’ll see how many of those close this year.

While we’re talking sales, residential is also way up in terms of # of sales. 365 YTD with another 75 pending, to be exact. That’s way up from 2019 with “only” 289 sales, but land is what stands out here.

Sales Prices
Sales prices, as you might guess, are also up significantly. Both land and residential averages are slightly skewed as a result of a few seemingly fantastical sales prices, but the average land price is down, likely due to affordable lots being snapped up.

The averages sales price in 2019 was $132,821 while 2020 is down about 20% to an average sales price of $118,775.

The average residential sales price in 2019 was $449,732. The average price based on sales to date is $585,480, up nearly 25%.

New Homes & Construction
Building and building permit (and building costs) numbers are strong, but rising build costs seem to be keeping things at bay. The county is reporting 112 permits (not including city permits) for the Spring & Summer season. Not having historical data, I’ll use sales data to make a point;

2020 YTD has seen 145 sales built in 2019 and 2020.
2019 saw 175 sales built in 2018 and 2019.
2007 saw 302 sales that were built in 2006 and 2007.

Past Predictions
I’ll bet that the market will outpace my 600 land sales prediction by year end, possibly by a significant margin. This is historical. After all, 2007 (my universal point of reference) saw only 626 land sales. While digging through past posts I found an article I wrote in 2016 about the potential impacts of the 2016 Presidential election. The post didn’t have much to do with elections at all (I think the point was that elections don’t usually impact real estate) but more with Real Estate cycles in general. It quoted a Harvard article written by Teo Nicolais talking about market cycles. Using his methodology (barring any major interruption such as global war) we should be in the midst of a Hypersupply phase on the cusp of a slowdown with rents on the verge of dropping. This is clearly not the case, but I would certainly call the Covid-19 pandemic a “major interruption”. No, it hasn’t slowed real estate or refinances with historic rates, but I would argue that it has slowed construction and speculative real estate as a result. If construction costs don’t come down, or worse, continue to rise, will this create (or continue to inflate) a bubble? Possibly. It all depends on how the market reacts to the increasing prices and sales volume such as that data provided above.

On that note… (Sorry, I’ve got to say it) – It is a great time to consider selling NOW. If it’s in the cards, let us provide some data to help. It’s easy, free, and no one in our firm is pushy. Learn More Here.

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