Teton Realty Blog

Teton Region Real Estate Market Stats, Articles & News

Q1 2025 Residential Market Report & Lookback

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It’s been awhile since we’ve given a full comprehensive market report of data over several years, so we felt it was high time, particularly with recent market volatility, stubborn interest rates, and an overall sense of a new market emerging from the craziness post COVID.

Using data since the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2025, we put together a graph with all of the data. While it might appear to be a jumble of information, let’s try to break it down.

Rate Hikes

The vast majority of the rate hikes occurred in 2022, so we indicated those with vertical lines. In the first quarter of 2022, we saw the first rate hike since 2018, followed by two rate hikes in Q2 2022, two rate hikes in Q3 and a another rate hike in Q4 of 2022. 2023 and onward witnessed slower hikes and pauses, but most of those were the first two quarters of 2023. The key metrics to watch here include the number of sales which decreased all through those noteworthy rate hikes, and the average days on market which increased mostly through the rate hikes, beginning with the second group of hikes – which makes sense to see this sector of the market lag behind and react to the Federal Reserve’s changes. Following those significant changes, you can see mostly just ups and downs. We’ll summarize that in greater detail below.

Average Sales Prices

The average sales price steadily increased, peaking in or around the 4th quarter of 2023, which seems about right for the market. If you ask most of our Teton Valley Realty Associates, they might agree that the top of the market was actually closer to the end of 2022, but again, it does not seem unusual to see a little bit of a delay here. While the average sales price ended on a high note in the first quarter of 2025, average numbers are easily skewed by large single transactions. A much easier picture to follow is the median sales price, which declined over the past few quarters back after a peak in Q3 2022 (more closely following the team’s sentiment). Similarly, about the time we saw those median sales prices decline, the average days on market again increased, ending at an all time high at the end of the first quarter in 2025.

Median Sales Prices

The median sales price saw its first significant increase, ironically after the rate hikes had begun. This seems to be the most delayed sector of the data from what we can interpret, but there was an area of confusion post COVID where prices (and people) really didn’t know where they were ultimately going to land, seeming to establish themselves with a high point in the third quarter of 2022, which is likely why many of our team Associates felt that was the peak of the market. There was an interesting surge during the third quarter of 2024, possibly due to rate decreases. This aligned with an inversion of the days on market, which sank nearly to a low point during that quarter in 2024.

Number of Sales

This data isn’t too conclusive, other than we saw the inventory bottom out at the end of the most significant rate hikes towards the end of 2023. We aren’t attributing this data to rate hikes, rather inventory diminishing as a result of increasing build costs and a continued strong Seller’s market. This again stabilized in 2023 and beyond, the point at which our team felt we were out of the “COVID era” and into a new market.

Summary, What’s in Store

Obviously, there’s no data to support what we might be in for, though broader market volatility has seemed to have put a short-term damper on sales. However, an interesting (small) bump in the first quarter of 2025 is noteworthy. Looking back through these first quarter milestones on the graph, however, you can see a surge at or around the first quarter of every year. This might be indicative of year end sales coming to a close, or a longer term trend. It’s not unusual for two peak seasons to dictate the greatest number of sales in our market, with the obvious ski season and busy Summer tourist seasons producing contracts, with sales to follow. Overall, we feel that there are a few things working for the real estate market’s continued growth, and a few things working against. Real estate “bulls” might argue that stock market investors might lose confidence and look to real estate for investment opportunities. Additionally, relief for interest rates is likely on the horizon, which could drive more sales. “Bears” would likely look at the overall market’s (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) sentiment and volatility trickling down to the real estate market after a long run of significant sales dollars and volume.

📚 Resources & References
📊 Real Estate Sales Data
Teton Valley Realty

Internal data on average and median sales prices, number of residential sales, and average days on market by quarter.

Teton Board of Realtors

MLS statistics for Teton County, Idaho.

💸 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes
Federal Reserve – FOMC Meeting Statements & Historical Decisions
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm

Tracked key interest rate increases during 2022 and early 2023, including:

March 2022: +0.25%

May 2022: +0.50%

June, July, Sept, Nov 2022: Multiple +0.75% hikes

🏦 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Peaks
Freddie Mac – Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Used to identify weekly mortgage rate peaks. Notable peaks include:

June 23, 2022: 5.81%

Oct. 20 & Nov. 3, 2022: 7.08%

Oct. 19, 2023: 7.79% (highest in over 20 years)

May 2, 2024: 7.22%

📰 News Commentary & Mortgage Rate Analysis
Barron’s, CNBC, Mortgage News Daily

Provided additional commentary on market reactions to rate movements and borrowing impacts.

When is the best time to shop for Real Estate in the Teton Valley?

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The best time to shop for real estate in the Teton Valley is totally dependent on a number of factors, as well as the context of the question. When do we typically see most new inventory come to the market? When are sellers usually most inclined to negotiate? I’ll do my best to break these questions down by the numbers using historical data, but I have to first clarify; The best time to purchase real estate in the Teton Valley is when the property you are looking for comes available. I can’t stress enough in our small market the lack of inventory and new listings at any given time. Choices are always limited, particularly when it comes to specialty properties like those with property features like creeks, streams or rolling terrain – as well as homes with guest homes, unique features, or special locations. Buyer should always be in the habit of monitoring the market closely, and jumping on opportunities when they meet one’s needs. That does not mean that buyers need to jump on the first thing that they see, however.

Land

Historical data has been fairly consistent. May and June have been the biggest months for new listings every year looking back to 2018 (and beyond) with the exception of 2020, which I’ll toss out as a result of The pandemic. Listings almost always begin to ramp up in April, and numbers for new listings begin falling in September. Here again, it doesn’t mean that one should not pursue a purchase during any given month. If a listing comes available that meets a specific set of criteria that has been difficult to find, it should be pursued if the price is right and you intend to close on a property within a set timeline. When it comes to the listing / sales price ratio, the data isn’t quite as definitive. However, it seems to point to sellers being more negotiable during the off-season months, particularly October, November and December. Usually an increase in supply decreases demand, but Teton Valley’s peak tourism season is the Summer months, effectively increasing the demand along with the new supply.

Homes

Residential trends seem to trail land trends by about 1 month. Most new listings come to market late Spring and early Summer, with June and July historically being the peak months for the greatest number of new listings coming to market. New inventory once again dwindles during the off-season months, particularly late Fall and early Winter. Historic trends have shown that new listings tend to pick up once again through the Winter peak season, though new listings are far fewer than Spring/Summer. Once again, the data is not as conclusive when it comes to the listing price / sales price ratio with residential properties, but there does seem to be a trend that shows more negotiation during the offseason months, like we were able to see with land sales.

Summary
The data points to more options and greater inventory during the Spring and early Summer months, with more opportunity for negotiation during the offseason, particularly late Fall and early Winter in both market sectors. Source: Teton Board of Realtors – Teton Valley, ID & Alta, WY

What do you consider Peak season?

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One of the most frequently asked questions I get pertains to the seasons. I wear multiple hats around the office. Sometimes I provide insight for the property management team. Other times, I may be working the administrative or brokerage side of the business. In addition, and like any real estate agent, I’m always working “sales”. Interestingly, the property management side assumes that Winter is the big season, and the sales side customers assume Summer is the big season.

I’m not going to pull metrics to try to prove my point when it comes to rentals, I can assure you that the Summer months are the busiest. The property management team is reeling with PTSD by the time October rolls around, normally to be reminded of how much of a pain property management can be through the Winter months.

I can vividly remember researching this very topic on the sales side some years ago and determining that there were more sales that Winter season than the Summer prior. This instance most certainly occurred post 2008 and pre-2020, and I don’t recall any volatile years in between. That said, I can also distinctly recall dozens, if not hundreds of instances where home or land sellers discuss taking listings off the market as winter approaches, with the strong opinion that things do indeed congeal as the temperatures drop.

Okay, enough already. Here are the stats. I’m working off of the Teton board of realtors MLS and including all of the areas served (Teton Valley, Jackson, Alpine and surrounding areas), and I am not breaking this down by property type (give me a break, it’s 11:00 p.m. on Sunday). Also, I’ve decided to base Summer sales on June 1st through November 30th, and Winter December 1st through May 30th.

2018
Winter sales: 788
Summer sales: 1,146

2019
Winter sales: 711
Summer sales: 1,177

2020
Winter sales: 686
Summer sales: 2,255

2021
Winter sales: 1,676
Summer sales: 1,782

2022
Winter sales: 1,151
Summer sales: 894

There you have it. 2022 is obviously an anomaly with a changing market on the heels of the post covid real estate craze, as was likely my aforementioned vivid memory – unless it’s not a memory at all… At any rate, just because there are more sales that occur during the Summer season, does not mean that homes should not be listed for sale during the Winter months as 2022 easily illustrates. Further, more sales does not necessarily equate to a higher sales price. Often competing with less inventory in the Winter can benefit one looking to sell.

How do we value your property, and how do we arrive at a recommended price?

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Good real estate agents need to have a variety of unique skill sets and be prepared to wear many hats. Professionalism amongst our customers and peers, a skill set with respect to marketing is important, an understanding of technology is key, a general understanding of construction, home maintenance, familiarity with their area of service including government entities, code, zoning – the list goes on. One often overlooked skill is understanding the basics of appraisal (though we are not appraisers) and valuation when it comes to market data, how it conforms with the local area and it’s nuances, different valuation methods and tying it all together with absorption data and recent sales.

Most real estate agents use a comparable sales method of valuation. Basically, we look at recent sale data (that usually only real estate agents in the area have access to), and form an opinion of value based on that data. However, it runs deeper than that. Not only do we need to find the most appropriate data, but we need to make adjustments based on unique attributes of the property we are valuing. In addition, we need to look at market conditions, including absorption.

Absorption is usually calculated by looking at the number of sales in a specific time period as well as the current supply. As real estate agents, we generally measure absorption by the number of months’ supply of inventory in that particular sector of the local real estate market. We then have to look at trends to understand if the amount of supply is likely to increase, or decrease in the coming months as we begin marketing your property. It’s easy to get caught up in markets. Most recently, we saw unprecedented demand and historically low supply. We need to take this into consideration when we value property, and it’s hard to convey this information to the public. Sellers want the highest price possible. The public needs to understand that it is our job to obtain this. We have a professional duty to do so for those we represent. This is why it’s so difficult to explain changing market conditions, particularly when things are slowing. As an example, we might look at comparable sales from the past 6 months, which were historically high. Not only do we need to make adjustments for the specifics of the property we are valuing, but we also need to take into consideration the changing market conditions and the increasing supply as mentioned above.

Now, let’s take a deeper dive into absorption as it relates to valuation. If we had one month’s worth of supply (a very low number) 5 months ago, four months’ of supply today and the market conditions are indicating we may have even more in a few months’ time, we also need to manage expectations on timing. Essentially, if we absolutely nailed a valuation and properly account for changing market conditions to the best of our ability with predictions and market indicators, the home should sell at the then calculated absorption time. In other words, if on the date of sale the current absorption is about 6 months’ worth of supply, and you were on the market for 6 months, everything tied together properly. Do we want to take offers in advance of that? If it’s the right offer, absolutely. If things take longer what’s going on? Well that’s an indication that the property may be overpriced. The challenge with this? Teton Valley is very seasonal in terms of its peak sale seasons. If we wait 6 months to learn that a listing is overpriced or agree to list at a higher number because our client asks us to do so, we spent quite a bit of time on the market with conditions that are indicating a slowdown. These are the risks of pricing without basis, or based on ill advice. To summarize, it is always in a Seller’s best interest to find a professional in the marketplace (any marketplace), that understands all of the aforementioned nuances to the real estate industry. A great marketing agent that doesn’t understand local trends is not necessarily a great agent at all. In addition, it’s easy to get caught up in crazy markets, and it’s even easier to enter into a phase of denial when hoping to capitalize on your investment, which should be everyone’s goal. Take your real estate broker’s advice if they have a clear understanding of the market if it is in fact your intent to sell at the highest price.

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