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Fall ’21 Market Update

September 27, 2021 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

The Teton Valley real estate keeps humming along. A few sectors of the market seem to be cooling off, but nothing earth-shattering.

LAND

The second quarter of 2021 seem to be a high point in the market with 190 land sales, consistent with the huge increase in sales since the real estate craze began in 2020. Total volume was just over 42m with sales prices exceeding list prices in many cases, but averaging 91% of the asking price. Of the 190 sales, just over 10% of them were financed.

The third quarter in 2021 brought newfound inventory, likely due to our newfound average sales price for land of just under $220k in 2021 (YTD) compared with an average sales price of just over $121k in 2020, though that average increased significantly as the year came to a close. Total volume was a touch over 38m. While the average sales price is up and sales prices are holding fairly firm at just 4% under the ask, inventory is also up and the number of sales are down over the last quarter. These are indicators that the increase of supply seems to be providing a sense of relief for buyers. We’ve seen a fair share of price reductions, but this is mostly attributed towards overzealous sellers beginning to understand that the current trajectory of land prices likely isn’t sustainable. Of the 138 sales, almost 14% were financed, a bit of an increase compared with last quarter.

RESIDENTIAL

The residential market continues to exceed expectations, likely due to the low inventory of just 58 active listings at the time of this writing and a dismal 14 new construction offerings. The third quarter of 2021 saw 93 residential sales at the time of this writing with home selling on average between 1 and 2% under the ask, with many selling above. The average sales price per square foot was $428 per square foot during this time which included land, this number is fairly consistent with the cost of construction not including land – the biggest factor when considering the lack of new inventory. Teton County reported about 38 new building permits for residential properties which included garage apartments and remodels. Builders have been turning away work with schedules booking several years in advance, but if you canceled projects because of unexpectedly high building costs have created just a few openings with custom home builders.

Backup offers – a good idea?

August 29, 2021 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

This is a contentious one amongst real estate agents. Before I get into that thought process, let’s go over the mechanics.

You’ve listed your home, you had a number of good showings and two great offers. Of course, you can only choose one. The other buyer presents a backup offer with a “backup addendum” accompanying the offer. It’s a short agreement, and it basically states that your agent will give them notice if the first buyer terminates. Things will then commence in accordance with the terms of their offer as soon as they receive that notice. If they have a deadline for an inspection, to deposit earnest money or provide a pre-approval letter, the clock won’t start ticking until that notice of the first position offer terminating is provided. Essentially things automatically roll right into the second offer.

Usually, a buyer’s agent is always an advocate for a backup offer because the buyer can terminate the backup offer up until the notice is given, at any time. Basically, there’s no risk. This is exactly why some agents agree that accepting a backup offer is a detriment to a seller. Why not just go back to the market and potentially receive more offers?

When acting as listing agents, we sometimes get used to increasing markets so it’s easy to make this advice. However, (in my view) there are still a few good reasons to consider a backup offer if a buyer wants to present one.

1) As agents, we try, but don’t always take a seller’s emotions into account like we should. I can tell you that listing a home in today’s competitive market is exhausting. We sometimes field dozens (even hundreds) of calls, texts, emails, social media notifications, the list goes on. It also doesn’t matter the day of the week or the time of the day, and we juggle a huge number of showings and showing requests. With all of the craziness, we sometimes forget that the seller oftentimes endures some of the same challenges. Keeping the house clean, ready for showings, juggling kids, dogs, life. In addition, making decisions can be tough. Good agents don’t tell you what your decision should be (sometimes we try to inform sellers of bad ones), they lay out the options, pros and cons in an organized fashion, answer questions and provide advice. The point is, a backup offer can create a calm environment and segue into a new transaction without going through all of the trouble again.

2) There’s an old saying that your first offer is always your best offer. However, in today’s crazy market it is not unusual for buyers to fire off quick offers with even quicker response times before the “bidding war” begins. In this context I’m not suggesting the very first offer is the best offer but rather the first group of offers is usually your best group of offers – if that makes sense. The more time that homes spend on the market, whether they are available or have an accepted contract, the more buyers assume there is room to negotiate. There are exceptions to every rule and that would include the points above. Of late, we have seen home values rise even during the time of which homes are in contract, but that seems to be subsiding. To bring this full circle to the market today, things appear to be leveling off (not dropping) in this new plateau appears to be a baseline for home and land prices, at least for now. This is all the more reason to consider these points, and to seek good real estate advice with these fast moving and ever evolving markets.

Roofs, Property Value and Peace of Mind

July 29, 2021 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

A family friend reached out a few weeks back about the potential impact of a certain roofing system compared with another and how it might impact the value of their property down the line. It resonated with me as I am currently in the process of replacing the original roof on my 35-year-old home. My own experience has been somewhat tempestuous as we struggled with replacing an uncommon roof type and battling some significant damage we uncovered along the way. My home is an old family cabin that my wife and I have renovated over several years, and the old roof was an uncommon stone coated metal cold roof. We don’t have any plans to sell, so resale wasn’t on our minds. We wanted something that would blend in with the forest setting and perform well for a long period of time for the reasons mentioned above. Ultimately, we chose a very thick, shake-like asphalt shingle. We simplified the roof rakes and beefed up the Boston ridge to create a slightly more modern look, which we are happy with. In our case, we probably did increase the value of our home, and we are happy with the look of the new shingles even though we were concerned with it.

Anyway, when comparing the two roofing systems my friend was considering I didn’t feel one would significantly change the property’s value. In their case neither option would have been unusual for the home, but one was clearly more expensive. It was difficult for me to answer whether or not they would see a return on the investment for the more expensive roofing system. To answer the question, this is where I shifted focus to the overall picture. Sometimes certain home improvements, materials used or construction methods do not have a direct impact on a property’s value, but can when viewed in conjunction with the rest of the home and it’s finishes. I distinctly remember an incredible custom home of which the owner spared no change or effort throughout, but installed vinyl floors which was (honestly) just his preference. However, when helping him with the sale, it was a sticking point when comparing the finishes through the rest of the home on such a high dollar listing. Similarly, I remember walking through a property where the owner did some light renovations in anticipation of a sale. The fresh paint was great, but the Viking dishwasher felt odd to me. Yes, it was undoubtedly expensive and was certainly a talking point, but it didn’t fit well with the rest of the finishes and I don’t think that homeowner saw a return on that investment. The moral of the story, underdoing it and overdoing it are both bad, but in different ways.

Okay, if you’re still reading, on to the peace of mind part. I have probably written about this in other articles, but I wanted to touch on a few other considerations, particularly as we see new construction ticking up.

1) Snow slides. In my case, a metal roof was not an option. I have a wraparound deck that the snow would absolutely destroy in the event it were to slide off. My old roof never slid, and I hope my new roof never slides. In other cases, you want the snow to slide. Low roof pitches or shed roofs can be a good example.

2) Ventilate! I can’t think of very many circumstances where I would not recommend installing a ventilated or cold roof to help mitigate ice damming. This will usually include some form of screen or vent along the roof soffit and a vent in the gable ends or along the ridge of the home.

3) Ice Damming. Believe it or not, we get snow and ice up here. I believe code requires ice and water shield along the roof edges and valleys, but I usually suggest putting it everywhere, if you can. There are better ways to prevent ice damming as mentioned above in the ventilation section, but make sure you are protected in the areas mentioned and it never hurts to have the extra protection, particularly on roofs with a lower pitch.

4) Pitch. Speaking of pitch, be careful with this one. The modern, low sloping or flat roof systems are becoming more and more popular, but they can pose significant challenges when it comes to snow accumulation and ice damming. I’ll never forget all of the struggles I’ve had over the years with commercial building management where flat roofs with drain systems are common. The moral of that story, make sure you have heat tape in those drains, and monitor them closely. It doesn’t take long for these to plug up with ice creating a swimming pool on top of your roof.

As a final bit and disclosure, I’m a real estate agent, not a roofer. I have experience with some of these things, but am in no means an expert when it comes to the construction types and methods best for your situation. Always consult with your contractor and local roofer, and keep in mind our unique climate when it comes to architects. People tend to bring their local architect with them from dramatically different climates which can often lead to incompatibility with local contractors and issues with construction methods down the line.

We all know real estate has been crazy, but how crazy?

June 30, 2021 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

The real estate market was churning along nicely pre-covid – almost at a rate that some of us expected a small adjustment. We all panicked in March of 2020, but the powers at be assured us that this would be a “V” shaped recession with a quick and strong recovery. In terms of the housing market (economy devastation aside) they were absolutely right. Let’s take a look at the numbers:

Single Family Average Sale Price (Teton Valle and Swan Valley, Idaho)

February 2020: $547,700
April 2020: $525,806
February 2021: $863,535
May 2021: $1,166,266

Median home sale prices might be a little more indicative of the market as some of the higher priced ranch style properties began to shake loose late 2020, but the data remains similar, a nearly 100% increase over 12 months. As usual, increasing prices has been mostly attributed towards lack of supply, but a mix of historic lumber prices, housing and labor shortages, material shortages and more has increased construction costs – also creating a housing supply problem. Construction costs (as usual) seem to be staying slightly ahead of home sales, so rist for spec home builders is always a concern. Inventory for existing homes remains low today with only 48 residential properties for sale in the County.

LAND

Land seems to have run its course for now – and it sure was interesting. For years land inventory hovered around 500 active MLS listings dipping to double digits as the craze of Buyers came through looking to own a piece of rural America, the Tetons, etc.

Vacant Land Average Sale Price (Teton Valle and Swan Valley, Idaho)
February 2020: $65,309
April 2020: $148,666
February 2021: $158,317
May 2021: $209,285

Inventory was particularly low 4th Quarter 2020, I distinctly remember personally having only one listing of which none were land listings for the first time in my career. The “Teton View Corridor” parcels were completely wiped out, and every new listing was 10% or more over the last. Impressive gains aside, I do believe land prices in Teton Valley were too cheap for too long, not really ever recovering since the last recession. Interesting enough, however, that market appears to be stabilizing. That “View Corridor” now has nearly 100 land listings, and prices seem to be coming down about 10% across the board. As usual, these recreation markets tend to react very quickly to supply, and demand always seems to be present. With lumber prices seeing some relief and investors/spec home builders gaining confidence as the market builds some history – we may see a few spec homes out there to get things back to normal – whatever that means.

Source: Teton Board of Realtors

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