Localized Bubble, and Market Ramifications

Last week I promised an article on the potential for a localized market bubble. Refer to last weeks article;

According to Wikipedia: A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets, typically following a land boom.

First, are we in a bubble now? I’ve heard lots of local Teton Valley talk about the current real estate situation (low Real Estate Supply, low vacancy, increasing rents, need for construction) which ironically coincides with last week’s market cycle prediction. Based on the above definition, and the predictions outlined in last week’s article, the answer is no, we are not in a bubble. We are simply either enjoying increased rents and markets due to market supply and availability, or on the brunt end of a market with limited inventory, thus faced with high market rents, or purchasing in a market with limited inventory. The bubble, (if following the prediction that the next Real Estate market recession will not occur until 2024), will come just before that time when supply far exceeds demand.

On a local level, we do generally follow National trends. We have been in some instances “immune” to certain market conditions, and have also found ourselves overexposed – meaning we create our own problems. I would refer to these “problems” as “mini-cycles”. These mini-cycles, assuming they do not spiral out of control, are simple reminders that we need to cool it, or we’ll wind up in 2008 while the rest of the Nation enjoys the fruits of a standard market cycle.

Example; I am currently aware of well over 50 acres of vacant land pending sale in the Victor area alone, all zoned for medium or high density. In addition, there are even more projects with similar density requirements slated for construction beginning 2017. Now, according to the market cycles outlined in last weeks article (refer above) this is normal, As long as it doesn’t get out of hand. There’s a potential for this to turn into a race to the finish line, in order to complete and liquidate projects before the next developer or investor. If that happens, not only will the last developer to complete their project end up with the short end of the stick, but so will we, here in our local Teton Valley Market. If it doesn’t get too out of hand, this will cause, in my opinion, a mini cycle, or intermediate bubble.

From a local government standpoint, I think it is possible. In my opinion, the city of Victor promotes growth more than it’s sister cities in Teton Valley, or the County itself. Victor needs to be very careful, and Victor’s investors the same with regards to the above concerns. Teton County also has a new wave of elected officials produced by this past election, likely more so pro-growth than the outgoing officials. This is fine, but we need to be careful.

For those of you that are concerned about the potential for a premature bubble or mini cycle, 2017 might be a good opportunity to liquidate while the market is relatively stable, and supply is low. Am I telling everyone to panic? No. I’m not panicking, and I’m likely not going to sell off my Real Estate assets in 2017. I am however going to closely monitor the situation, and not get ahead of myself. Like our grandparents before us and their conservative values as a result of living through the Great Depression, I too am sensitive to these types of things having recently witnessed the “Great Recession” in a Real Estate family.

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