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The Teton Valley Market: Where it’s been, Where it’s going

September 3, 2016 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

The Teton Valley Market: Where it’s been, Where it’s going: September 2016

I’m not going to say that nobody saw the downturn coming in 2008. We were all going crazy. Most of us that thought it might happen? We were ignoring it. We were too busy. It did though, and like our grandparents before us, many of us think about it today. To me, it was yesterday. Sure, recovery is still a commonly used term, even though (by all appearances) our market is recovered. Sort of.

I’ve read a few recent articles. One was a few months back by a group in Jackson and Jonathan Schechter, “Our mess will fuel suburban growth”. Jonathan was referring to his expectation for Teton Valley’s continual growth as the housing market, and frankly the available land on the other side of the hill tightens it’s grip. This article, and a few like it sparked several rhetorical articles and comments from those all too concerned with our sudden growth spurt. This group was concerned with the amount of growth we saw leading up to the recession, and the possible ramifications of too much growth all at once.

Personally, I don’t think things are growing too fast. We’re not seeing a large amount of construction, virtually no development, just market recovery and prices continuing to rise. By all appearances, home prices are on par with years leading up to the recession, if not close to pre-recession levels. However, this is not taking into account inflation or construction costs. Believe it or not, the recession began nearly a decade ago. Times were different. Construction costs were less expensive than they are now, and the housing situation in Jackson is worse than ever before.

The relief comes in land prices. Pre-recession, some developers made out like Bandits. They got in while things were hot, and got out before they were not. Some lost their hide. Lest we forget many locals who’s lives will never be the same after risk, and no reward. Bankruptcy, short sales, foreclosures, it was a mess. I mentioned relief. Though these terrible things happened to good people, and bad people, it is all behind us. We now have a huge inventory of available, developed land ready to be put to good use in the coming years, and possibly, decades. No, it’s not going to be a thousand years like some predicted throughout the recession. I remember 3 acre parcels selling at $200 to 300,000 – it’s where the big money was. Now that those same lots are under $100,000, it makes inflated building prices manageable, and the whole situation more affordable. With the huge inventory, supply and demand is not as much a factor (unless you get into supply and demand of niche locations) and Teton Virew lots a-plenty.

Where’s it going?

With the above said related to current building costs, it is my prediction that I can make an educated guess on where the market is, in relation to where it’s going in the near term. I believe that residential is nearly fully recovered, though we can expect annual growth with regards to real estate and it’s investment properties related to inflation and growing populations. Land, unless in areas of high demand where those with disposable income can comfortably spend more such as resort areas or River front properties will continue to grow, though only slowly until supply is diminished and there is renewed demand. I believe an indicator where we will need to recognize a market approaching dangerous levels will be an explosive jump in land prices. Am I saying we should prepare for another major housing collapse at that time? Not necessarily, but remember Real Estate is cyclical, and even more so in resort areas. Cycles, or slight market adjustments over time are actually healthy in some ways.

Where it’s been:

Since I tried to depict scenarios for both the short and long term foreseeable future, here’s a bit of information as to where the market has been. I selected two quality subdivisions, and found a home that sold pre-recession, during the recession, and recently. The first, Brookside Hollow – a popular, quality development in Victor, ID an area in Teton Valley reliant on recreation markets including our own, and Jackson Hole. The second, Comore Loma – a quality, scenic development along the foothills overlooking Ammon, ID (Idaho Falls) an area with low unemployment reliant on local commerce, business, regional hospitals, and the INL technology site.

Comore Loma, Ammon ID

April, 2005: $181,000
February, 2008: $208,500
February, 2014: $185,573
January, 2016: $210,000

Brookside Hollow, Victor ID

January, 2006: $396,000
July, 2012: $198,000
December, 2015: $350,000

Looking at the information above, it becomes obvious that recreation markets obviously see a larger depression in housing crunches and times of economic distress. If I gave you the numbers of the sales prices and the years sold for the home in Ammon, you probably wouldn’t be able to match them up. The market, though they saw a depression, was far less volatile. The Victor market (remember these homes are somewhat comparable) is much more lucrative, however.

The moral of the (my) story for the analysis above is that both markets appear to be sustainable in time, if you can live with the ramifications of a housing collapse in a recreational area.

Loan Tips – How to Prepare

August 13, 2016 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

***Tayson is not a lender. confirm the below “good practices” with your lender.
As our local market becomes more and more competitive with multiple offers and properties moving quickly, it’s becoming ever-important to be prepared to provide a pre-qualification letter along with your offer, and to be prepared to close on time. We’re seeing a number of sellers continue to market their home for sale for backup offers during the contract process with the buyer. If the seller receives a backup offer they usually can’t terminate your contract (unless the contract specifically states they can) without the buyer failing to meet a deadline, or failing to close on time. In most cases the important deadlines are timely earnest money delivery, and proof of funds or loan approval subject to appraisal and underwriting on or before the dates specified in the contract. Work with your realtor to ensure all timelines are met, and work with your lender to ensure you close on time. Some tips, below;

How to Prepare:

The best practice if you are thinking of buying in the near future would be to begin preparing well in advance, though this isn’t always possible. Follow these steps to the best of your ability.

Save your pay stubs. If you foresee a new loan in your future, become extra diligent about keeping record of large purchases *<—avoid if possible* , keeping pay stubs, bonus check stubs, and keeping track of any expenses or income that is out of the ordinary.
Start collecting your tax returns for the last 2 years. If it’s 2016, you will need your complete 2014 and 2015 returns. Organize them, separate your w-2’s and any 1099’s. If you need to collect these items from your employer or accountant it could take valuable time during a contract – sometimes too much time.
Get in the habit of “digitizing” all of your records, or stop in to an office center periodically to scan, label and organize all of the documentation needed. In addition, keep the originals in a safe place that is easy to access until after closing.
If you are depositing money gifted from someone that is not immediate family (or traceable funds), in some cases it cannot be used unless the cash has been in your account longer than the lender will look back in your records. Always consult with your lender, but this tip could be helpful, and you would need to obviously deposit the funds well in advance.
In keeping with the above, if you do plan on using gifted funds, speak with your lender early on in the process about properly going about this. It is extremely important to follow the proper procedures and collect documentation that your lender requires such as proof of where the funds came from, or a gift letter. Also, remember to keep documentation of deposits. If you are selling a car to come up with a down payment, remember that you will need proof of ownership, bill of sale, etc. Consult with your lender if you are selling an item to increase cash for closing.
If you are selling a home to relocate, obtain a complete record from the title company or real estate professional that helped you. Your lender WILL need this.
Think about speaking with a lender early on – very early on in the process. In some events home buyers find they have an outstanding balance they were unaware of, or a fraud issue that is affecting their credit. This can take months to clear up, and it’s best to find out about this prior to finding your dream home that needs to close in 1 month.
Try not to close any investments accounts, or open new accounts based on credit, including obtaining new credit cards.
When saving $$ for your down payment, remember also to save for closing costs, which can be several thousand dollars. Don’t let this come as a surprise after writing your offer.
Continue life as normal. PAY ALL BILLS on time, including credit cards, auto payments, etc.
CONSULT WITH YOUR LENDER on all items! If you are considering a job change, a large purchase, anything, consult with your lender. Remember that your real estate agent and/or the seller are not lenders.

Just like with your Realtor, most lenders can help you with any property as long as they can work in your state. However, like your Realtor, it can pay off to work with a lender that understands the nuances of our local Teton market such as long appraisal times, or any specific loan requirements related to the location of the property, proximity to wetland, etc. I have been in several circumstances where an out-of-state lender will contact me after reviewing a settlement statement and say “Tayson! There is no reference to the transfer tax!” Yes, yes – that is because we do not have a transfer tax… In addition, most buyers will find that unless working with a “big box” brokerage, they probably won’t have to pay their real estate firm any fees related to the services, even if they do not buy a home. However, interest rates and closing costs can vary from lender to lender. It’s a good idea to shop for a lender that is not only a local market expert, but one that has good rates and reasonable close costs.

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