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How many vacant building sites are there? (Really)

November 14, 2019 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I’ve been reading a number of articles lately referencing the impact all of the development in the late 2000s had on Teton Valley. Many of these articles compare today’s potential problems with those of the subdivision development era. Glampgrounds, RV parks, and certainly any further land development have been targets, often for good reason. While I agree that the amount of development that occurred in the late 2000s was extreme, I believe that the perceived impact and comparison to some of these other projects is also extreme, and in many cases exaggerated. I’ve heard numbers from 7000 to 16000 undeveloped building lots in Teton Valley which off the cuff, sounded high to me. So, I decided to investigate.

My first thought was that I would have to find a list of the available subdivisions, add up the number of lots in each, and subtract lots with improvements. This seemed like a daunting task. Fortunately, I learned that Rob Marin, the county’s extremely talented GIS coordinator had already done the heavy lifting. He based his analysis on subdivision lots, which is exactly what I would have done. After all, the purpose of the comparison and root of the problem is indeed subdivision lots. He determined (with a small margin of error) that there are 8,454 subdivision lots in the county, and that 3106 had improvements as of the date of Rob’s study, leaving 5,348 vacant subdivision lots in the county.

***Now might be a great time to read one of my past articles, With so many available building sites, why is it so hard to find what I am looking for?

Admittedly, this sounds like a lot. It is a lot. The question is, and point of my article; is the number of vacant building sites really as detrimental and overwhelming as it appears and is made to sound? Here are a few points from the devil’s advocate, speaking in generalities.

1) Some subdivisions really do, in my opinion, exist in a vacuum. What happens in or with them really doesn’t have very much impact on the rest of the real estate market. Example: Tributary, FKA Huntsman Springs. There are roughly 500 vacant building sites in Tributary. This is almost 10% of the 5,000 vacant building sites mentioned. The same goes for many other large-scale developments such as River Rim Ranch. Could it be construed that these developments are problems in and of themselves? Sure. However, if real estate prices plummeted, or skyrocketed in Tributary, I don’t feel it would have a major impact on the rest of the real estate in Teton Valley.

2) We know that roughly 65% of the available building sites are vacant, or at least have no improvements. There are approximately 300 subdivisions in Teton County. For the sake of making a point, imagine that each of them has roughly 25 lots. Each of those have 8 or 9 houses. A few of those own the neighboring lots. This isn’t the case, but it puts things in perspective.

3) Teton Valley is big. If you start breaking this down by quadrant, for example, the southeast corner of the valley (better known as Victor) doesn’t really have a problem as there are relatively few subdivisions with little to no improvements. Things are much closer to the scenario I outlined in point 2 above, if not better. Yes, I know there’s a counterpoint to every point I’ve made here. Some of the big subdivisions that are mostly vacant are considered to be the biggest part of the problem. The issue isn’t necessarily consistent across the board as mentioned in point 2, and while things are looking pretty good in Driggs and Victor, Tetonia has a huge ratio of some of these subdivisions with very few, or no homes at all. In any case, it is what it is. They are what they are, and they’ll sell when they sell. We can’t take away land from those who invested in a piece of Teton Valley just because we now recognize that things got carried away a decade ago. As a final point, throughout the course of my career, there have always been approximately 500 building sites on the market at any given time. I suspect that isn’t going to change anytime soon, so I’m not particularly worried about extreme changes with respect to value. The key takeaway is that there are a few (several) problem subdivisions out there. However, in most cases they are being farmed, waiting for their moment to become a neighborhood. I believe in responsible growth, and hope we can learn from mistakes relative to oversupply and over-development, but I hope past mistakes don’t prevent Teton Valley from growing responsibly.

The Customer ISN’T Always Right!

September 16, 2019 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

The customer ISN’T always right!

I was watching a YouTube video about landscaping (DIY purposes) and ran across an interesting video I could relate with titled “When the Customer is Wrong”. It showed me some similarities and perspective with my career and areas of expertise. The example that resonated with me was protecting the client from themselves.

People tend to become emotionally tied to what they are buying or selling. In the case of the landscaper, the homeowner wanted the contractor to remove a pool and install a patio which was cost-prohibitive because of the soil composition. The contractor made the homeowner aware of the potential costs associated, but his emotions pushed him to go forward with the project. The contractor, adamant and concerned with not only the cost but the long-term viability of the project pushed back and ultimately was able to talk to homeowner into filling the area in and creating some natural grass and landscape at a much lower cost ensuring the homeowner that he could later install the patio after they were able to monitor ground movement.

Real estate agents are faced with similar situations. This contractor talked his customer out of investing thousands of dollars into the project of which he was already mobilized and prepared to do. As professionals, we also have to show our customers the long-term ramifications of trying to purchase something that doesn’t fit their needs or that may be a bigger project than their emotions are allowing them to see.

Similarly, and in many cases even more challenging is the razor thin line we balance between with respect to sellers and what they should do. Sellers oftentimes ask for opinions and advice, but don’t always heed that advice. Buyers can be emotionally attached to something they want which is an easy concept to grasp. We all like things that are new and shiny. Sellers, on the other hand, are emotionally attached to something that they have lived in, and shared life experiences in. This is why in so many cases, providing opinions of value can be so sensitive to many homeowners.

A classic approach includes sellers who only recognize, and only explain the great aspects of the home they live in. This is a classic trap for many rookie real estate agents. They are being sold by the homeowner. This can lead to overvaluation and extended days on market which usually equates to buyers expecting to be able to negotiate further. We also have to be careful about how we approach sellers when they receive good offers. What a broker might see and know is a good offer, a seller might view as a terrible offer. Trying to tell someone that a good offer is good can oftentimes lead them to believe that you weren’t working in their best interest, it can be messy.

Personally, I try to find ways to show my customers that I genuinely care about their investment or potential investment. I try not to think about my bottom line as a rule of thumb. The more I want something, the more my emotions can play tricks on my own mind. Working in your client’s best interest, genuinely, usually works itself out. However, it doesn’t mean these awkward situations don’t come up, and it’s a part of a broker’s job to know how to handle and articulate these situations.

Map Your Listings!

April 19, 2019 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

For this week’s article I wanted to talk a little bit about marketing. Specifically, listing mapping, how it works, and how it can drastically affect your listing.

I am constantly in some sort of web development phase. I monitor our own website and it’s performance, look at competitor sites, as well as listing sites like Zillow. As a refresher, your listing, and how it appears on these sites is directly linked to how your Realtor enters the data into their local MLS.

Accurately entering this data is important not only for mapping purposes, but property features. For example, if your property has a Teton view, you need to make sure that your agent checks the box under the view category that the property has a Teton view. If the data isn’t entered correctly your listing isn’t going to show up for those using specific search filters. It’s amazing how many agents don’t enter this data correctly, especially once you get into the Idaho Falls market… Sorry guys, it’s true.

Back to mapping and its importance. Just like customers using filters to look for properties, many customers (if not most) used some sort of map feature to search for real estate. Like inconsistencies with property features, it’s amazing how many real estate agents don’t properly map their (your) listings. Almost every MLS tries to map listings automatically, and there is a second step available to verify the location of each listing entry. Because we are in a rural area, many listings are either not mapped by this system at all, or mapped improperly. All of the websites that display your listing receive their data from each MLS in simple data feeds. These feeds include property features, acreage, square feet and so forth. The mapping data, however, is provided in latitude and longitude coordinates. If a listing is properly mapped, these coordinates are sent to the secondary website like Zillow. If they aren’t, a variety of things can happen, none of which are good for your listing.

The primary result for most advertising websites if coordinates are not available is to not display them on maps at all. This is the case with Zillow. The listing is still available in the “list” view, which is why you’ll see your listing come up, and many agents don’t realize the mistake they have made. The other result, which is the case on websites like mine, is that these listings are still displayed on the map, but in the wrong location. This can be a minor issue since my website tries to generate it’s own coordinates based on the address, but it can also be a major issue for listings that don’t have an address or haven’t been mapped by Google, many land listings fall under this category. These listings can show up and very odd places, Africa for example. Arguably this is better than not having it display at all, but still a pretty big issue. As we approach the sale season, it might be good to review your listing with your agent, and verify that it is being mapped properly, and that is translating properly to sites like Zillow.

Wire Fraud & Real Estate

January 21, 2019 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

As one might imagine, fraud is a word used abundantly in the real estate industry. Here are a few examples, and how to handle them.

Wire Fraud:

Usually wire fraud is associated with email. In order for a hacker to get you to wire money to them, they’ll need to intercept and change account numbers for what would be an otherwise unassuming, planned transaction. Scenario: A hacker is monitoring a title company’s emails. The hacker sees that you plan on purchasing a property. He’s monitoring emails that have the key words “wire instruction”. He intercepts an outgoing message with the title company’s wiring instructions attached. He simply changes the numbers to reflect his bank account he previously setup with a fictitious name. You receive the instructions, and send the wire. Since wire transactions are usually instant, (the reason we like to use them) he immediately transfers or withdraws money, and it’s gone. This scenario is less likely to occur based on recent diligent efforts on behalf of these companies, but what if you received and impersonated email from your real estate agent? In almost all cases, these are honest mistakes, but they can cost the sender thousands of dollars of unrecoverable funds.

The Solution is easy. ALWAYS verbally confirm wire transfers with the recipient including the account numbers before sending any wire.

Paper Check Fraud:

Fortunately for the consumer, these cases are more typically aimed at real estate brokerages. Scenario: Thief 2 poses herself as a real estate buyer. She contacts an unassuming real estate agent and informs the agent she would like to make an all-cash offer on a property she viewed on her own the prior summer. She’s willing to offer full price, and wants to put down $10,000 of earnest money that can be refunded within 10 days to give her time to perform due diligence and inspections, which is very common. She is of course emailing using a fake name, and is working overseas, so prefers email as opposed to conversation. The real estate agent secures a contract very easily with her full price offer. She sends a fake cashier’s check in the amount of $10,000. Shortly after, she changes her mind and asks for a refund. Because she is traveling and working in Ukraine, she asks if the funds can be refunded via money transfer or wire to her account, of course setup using her fictitious name. The agent is disappointed, but she is still within her inspection time frame. He terminates the contract, and wires the money back to her. 10 days later, the bank notifies the real estate broker that the cashier’s check has bounced. Unfortunately these situations do occur, and cashier’s checks can be fraudulent as well.

There are many circumstances in which hackers and thieves can take serious advantage of consumers, the public, and even government as we have seen. It’s easy to fall into these traps, just remember, always verify. Confirm account numbers, call the bank associated with a cashier’s check, etc. Verbal communication with real institutions is absolutely key when dealing with these large transactions.

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