Most of us in the industry know that interest rates have already begun to rise, and while they are nowhere near historic levels, they are approaching levels we started to see prior to the recession. Average 30-year rates dipped into the low 3s at the bottom of the 2008 downturn, and held at these levels for some time.
December ’16 Market Stats & Year End Report
Teton Valley including Alta saw nearly 200 residential single-family sales in 2016, an improvement from 2015, even though inventory remains low. Condo and townhouse sales were on par with the year prior, though prices have increased in various sectors in the Valley. The number of building site sales in the Valley increased by 10% in 2016, and the average sale price ended at over $120,000 for the month of December 2016.
Real property vs Real Estate and the Bundle of Rights
Alright, commonly we hear the term real estate and just assume it is just that. Property, house, something associated with improvements on land or just bare land. This is correct, any buildings that are permanently attached to the property (note that a shed on skids would be considered personal property) are referred to as improvements. Real estate normally includes resources or minerals that are under the land or water rights, unless they are specifically excluded, usually at the time of transfer. The same goes for the air rights, or the space above the surface of the Earth. This can also be limited to a certain distance as we start to think about airplanes and their right to travel over your property. Even though you may own the space, it can also be limited by County height limitations, and this can be further convoluted when high-rise buildings or condos come into play. In these instances the homeowner’s association may own the building footprint, while you own the inside of the condo.
Localized Bubble, and Market Ramifications
Last week I promised an article on the potential for a localized market bubble. Refer to last weeks article;
Example; I am currently aware of well over 50 acres of vacant land pending sale in the Victor area alone, all zoned for medium or high density. In addition, there are even more projects with similar density requirements slated for construction beginning 2017. Now, according to the market cycles outlined in last weeks article (refer above) this is normal, As long as it doesn’t get out of hand. There’s a potential for this to turn into a race to the finish line, in order to complete and liquidate projects before the next developer or investor. If that happens, not only will the last developer to complete their project end up with the short end of the stick, but so will we, here in our local Teton Valley Market. If it doesn’t get too out of hand, this will cause, in my opinion, a mini cycle, or intermediate bubble.
From a local government standpoint, I think it is possible. In my opinion, the city of Victor promotes growth more than it’s sister cities in Teton Valley, or the County itself. Victor needs to be very careful, and Victor’s investors the same with regards to the above concerns. Teton County also has a new wave of elected officials produced by this past election, likely more so pro-growth than the outgoing officials. This is fine, but we need to be careful.
For those of you that are concerned about the potential for a premature bubble or mini cycle, 2017 might be a good opportunity to liquidate while the market is relatively stable, and supply is low. Am I telling everyone to panic? No. I’m not panicking, and I’m likely not going to sell off my Real Estate assets in 2017. I am however going to closely monitor the situation, and not get ahead of myself. Like our grandparents before us and their conservative values as a result of living through the Great Depression, I too am sensitive to these types of things having recently witnessed the “Great Recession” in a Real Estate family.