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November ’18 Market Stats

December 16, 2018 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

For November 2018’s Teton Market Update, I compared Teton Valley sales stats compared to November of 2017. In a nutshell, sales are down 24% from one year ago, while dollar volume is only down 18%. My interpretation of this was that supply remains low, which is driving prices up. This is consistent with the data for 2018 vs 2017, the average sales price in Nov. ’18 was around 350k, while Nov. ’17 was about 5% less. Sales volume is down due to inventory levels (as mentioned) which is likely because of high construction costs, which has been the trend for the past few years.

Victor, ID seems to be building a healthy supply, so we’ll see if these numbers switch places in the coming months.

Where are we relative to 2007?

November 1, 2018 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Being a real estate agent and a small-time real estate investor, not only do I closely watch localized trends, but also pay attention to National trends. I pay attention to articles about things that can impact the housing market, and I try to interpret how they will trickle down to my local market. Lately I have began seeing comparisons of home prices at the peak of our last boom compared to now, as an analytical point to understand where we are in our “expansion” cycle.

The general consensus of these articles is that we are on par with home prices in 2007. However, there are a couple of sticking points with this train of thought in my opinion.

First, this does not take inflation into account. While it has only been 10 years; with an average inflation rate of about 2.25% over the past 10 years, current prices are (arguably) about 21.75% higher than prices in 2007 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index. I would interpret that to mean that a $100,000 home in 2007 would be $122,000 today not considering other Market factors, which these other analyses are also not considering. All things being equal, this should mean that prices are about 22% less today than they were in 2007, (assuming actual dollar amounts are similar) and that’s a big number.

Second, it does not consider difference in interest rates. Speaking in generalities, 30 year rates are about a full point less today than they were in 2007. While 1% doesn’t seem like much, if you take an average sales price of around $350,000, that can equate to $3,500 is a year in interest at the beginning stages of a loan. That’s almost $300 a month.

Third, if history repeats itself, that would indicate that we are about halfway through our expansion cycle, not at the end of the supply cycle. Based on local indicators, this would seemed accurate. Supply is still low, construction is underway. Usually the phase that follows expansion is high supply or oversupply. While construction costs seem to be keeping construction rates at bay, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to believe that things could pick up substantially and create an oversupply in two years’ time. if we aren’t careful.

In short, I truly believe that while we will experience a housing adjustment in the future, (not necessarily the near future) but also that it will not be as deep or have as much impact as the historic, most recent recession. I also believe that a recession will be followed by a period of expansion, and the thought process will repeat itself time and again as it has in the past. Until then, I’ll continue to read articles about National trends and take them with a grain of salt, then come to my own conclusions based on facts, data, historic data and my own experience despite how accurate or inaccurate they may be.

Q3 2018 Market Update

August 26, 2018 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

The Region’s real estate market remains healthy with srong sales, and seemingly sustainable construction levels. Unlike the last expansion period, we should be able to liquidate existing inventory, even if sales slow. This is a good thing with respect to keeping supply levels in check. Part of this is because of increased construction costs, I have talked about in previous articles.

Sales prices, and certain Market sectors seem to have plateaued, I expect a more historical growth pattern with respect to these markets as time goes on. Some areas, however, still have room to grow. My opinion is that we will continue to see higher-than-normal appreciation with vacant land and luxury homes above $700,000 to keep up with construction costs, and demand.

Commercial real estate remains slow, but I anticipate some of the highest levels of growth and appreciation with respect to this Market in the near future. Keep your eyes out for a relative Bargains today, this may be an opportunity for investors and business owners looking to own real estate.

With so much available land, why can’t I find what I am looking for?

July 17, 2018 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

It is true that at any given moment in the Teton Valley Idaho Market, there are between 4-600 available building sites for sale. Time and again, I converse with someone about oversupply of land. This can be true, but it is really a statement about one sector of the real estate land market in Teton Valley – that is of course subdivision lots. Even those, however, have their own sectors that have very limited supply. How can this be, you ask? Let’s run through some of the popular categories or subcategories of land that people frequently look for, that isn’t necessarily in high supply:

No CCRs: This is the most common and obvious area of lack of supply. I received a fair share of monthly inquiries from someone looking to build something that doesn’t conform to subdivision requirements. Tiny houses, yurts, places for an RV, the list goes on. With respect to what is available, in a way, it’s an unintentional bait-and-switch. Many people are drawn to the area because of affordable land prices. They see building sites starting at very reasonable prices, but don’t yet understand what they can or cannot do with those building sites. When they discover that they must build a 2500 square foot home on that building site, they begin to explore options that better suit their needs, oftentimes something without subdivision restrictions, and they aren’t alone. Sometime just after the turn of the century, Teton Valley recognized that if they did not create some sort of requirement to properly subdivide larger pieces of land, they are going to end up with unorganized blocks of land in farm fields without any infrastructure or control for chaos and madness. Therefore, they enacted new requirements for proper subdivision of land, and authorized what is referred to locally as a one-time-only land split. Basically, each larger tract, usually more than 20 acres, can be split one time. Otherwise, the proper subdivision process must be followed. While this process does require that each subdivision shall install road and infrastructure, it does not require strict CCRs. However, since the bulk of the development in Teton Valley occurred between 2003 and 2008, these subdivisions followed trends at the time which included home sizes between 1600 and 2500 square feet, or larger. The inventory of un-restricted land today is either a product of land splits prior to this County enactment, or the remaining one-time-only divisions that have not yet been performed. Also, old downtown building sites within the city limits of Driggs, Victor, or even Tetonia also house a number of these lots, but the inventory reduces as time goes on. Because of the relatively high demand, and the low supply, these types of building sites are amongst the most expensive in Teton Valley, a contrast between very affordable subdivided parcels.

Trees: Because we live in a wide-open, flat, valley floor that has been converted over many decades to mostly agriculture land, areas with trees are generally limited to creeks, streams, and the surrounding foothills of Teton Valley.

Surrounding Foothills: This is an easy one, there’s only a narrow strip of land between the valley floor and the National Forest, what I refer to as the “foothills”. While lots can be affordable as you reach the North End of Teton Valley, the Southern end is quite different. At any given time, there aren’t more than a handful of accessible, desirable listings in the surrounding foothills.

River or Creek Frontage: Nothing creates a romantic atmosphere and a desirable place to live like being on one of Teton Valley’s Creeks, or the Holy Grail, the Teton River. Supply is obviously limited to the banks of one of these creeks flowing from the canyons of the surrounding foothills of the Big Hole or Teton mountain range, but it is almost impossible to locate available land along the banks of the Teton River. The Teton River is formed by a culmination of creeks and springs on the South end of the Teton Valley and gradually becomes a river about 6 miles South of Driggs. It gains creeks and momentum along the way, ultimately exiting Teton Valley at the North end of the valley below River Rim Ranch, becoming class 5 white-water rapids before flowing into the Snake River. Much of this land is protected in conservation, and the few available parcels that remain are held tightly and traded infrequently.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this writing, even subdivided lots can have their own specific sectors or Categories in the marketplace that naturally limit availability. I would consider one such category to be Teton “View Corridor” building sites East of Highway 33, and between the 2.5 Mile and 6 Mile mark North of Driggs that creates the full, Four Peak Teton view. As you begin to narrow these lots down into areas where view corridor seekers prefer, the inventory reduces to only a handful available building sites depending on the price range.

I believe land today, and likely in the future, will be a viable investment for these reasons. The prices are low because of the perceived supply, therefore the value, in my opinion, is high. There are only very short periods of time which I believe land sells at unsustainable price points, 2007 and 2008 was an example of this. These land bubbles are typically very short, and do not happen frequently. In addition, holding costs for land are usually very affordable with relatively low property taxes and homeowners dues in most of developments. For these reasons, land is becoming one of my preferred recommendations for affordable long-term investments in Teton Valley.

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