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Property Assessments, Are Taxes Going Through the Roof?

June 14, 2022 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Unless you were living under a rock for the past 2 years (which might have been nice) you probably know that property values are up significantly. Until now, we haven’t seen County assessed values follow suit. With the recent release of 2022 assessed values, many are concerned that property tax increases are soon to follow. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that your tax bill is going to go up proportionately.


In Idaho, each county is allowed to increase its property tax budget by up to 3% of the highest property tax budget of the past 3 years. The county can also increase their budget to account for new growth.


In order to calculate the tax rate, each taxing district within the county (Teton County has 18 taxing districts that each have slightly different budgets and needs) determines a levy, or the rate of which the county will multiply the assessed value to determine each property’s annual tax bill.


As an example, let’s say that district 1 has a total budget of $900k. In 2021, the total market value of every property in district 1 is $70m. To determine the levy, we would simply divide 900k by 70m, or 1.287%. If your assessed value is $300k, we simply multiply that by 1.287% to arrive at your 2021 tax amount of $3,861.


Now, let’s run a hypothetical based on what we are seeing today. We know that the total budget is going to increase with the new growth and the state’s allowance to increase the budget by up to 3% (ahem, inflation). Let’s assume that the new budget is $990k, and the collective value of all properties has risen to a whopping $110m. Using the same math, we divide $990k by $110m and arrive at 0.9%. Your value went from $300k to $450 this year. The math puts your 2022 tax bill at $4,050. While your tax bill has risen, it hasn’t risen 150% like your assessed value has.

The good news? Property values are up, and I know an agent that would love to sell your house.

Key Dates:

  • Mid-November – Current year tax bills mailed
  • December 20th – FIRST HALF TAX PAYMENT DUE
  • March 15th – Agricultural Exemption Applications Due
  • April 15th – Application deadline for Hardship Tax Relief or Circuit Breaker Program
  • April 15th – Application deadline for Homeowner’s Exemption
  • June 20th – SECOND HALF TAX PAYMENT DUE
  • First Monday in June – Assessment notices sent out
  • Last Monday in June – Last day to appeal current year’s property values
  • Summer – County begins planning budget for following year
  • Second Monday in September – County certifies budget

Application for Agricultural Exemption

Agricultural Lease Agreement

What’s it cost to build a house around here? (2022)

April 2, 2022 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I’ve always got to start with my typical disclosures. I’m obviously not a builder, but I work closely with builders and stay in touch with customers that have projects in the works. I always tend to have a few projects going on myself, as well.

I wrote an article back in 2015 with information about my experience with the cost of construction. As you probably already know, things have changed quite a bit since then. In addition, a good portion of my 2015 project was sweat equity. I later constructed another small home in 2017, and I should have updated this article then as I relied more heavily on subcontractors, though I acted as the general contractor in both circumstances. I later again acted as my own contractor during an extensive remodel of my 1980s home, and I am currently closely involved in a project with a general contractor.

Getting back to the nuts and bolts, the cost of construction has gone up pretty dramatically. Obviously there are a few things at play here including material costs, supply shortages on both materials and labor, not to mention the cost of living which has changed pretty significantly since 2015. This definitely trickles down to the cost of labor as well. To have some fun, I looked at some of the material costs from my previous projects. I decided to use 7/16 OSB or sheeting as my “gold standard”. That may not be totally accurate across the board for all lumber and materials, but it’s a good indication as to what’s going on.

7/16 OSB, 2015-2022
2015: $9.22
2017: $14.71
2021: $23.99*
2022: $60 +/-

Materials
To be fair, that 2021 price is… not fair. If you were watching, you might remember there was a lumber bubble that popped in the Fall of 2021, and we all thought that may be a tipping point on material costs. That assessment was incorrect, as things jumped right back up to a high point, and continued that trajectory. The interesting point was how much that drop in lumber prices could impact a typical 2000 square foot home. The answer (in rough numbers) was about $15,000. Obviously some great savings in that scenario, but it’s probably not going to make or break the bank in the scheme of a large (or even a small) project. When we look at all material costs, you can see where it all starts to add up. Virtually everything is in high demand and is experiencing some sort of shortage. Appliances, tile, drywall, copper, plumbing materials, whatever. When you add it all up, it’s pretty significant.

Labor
As mentioned, the cost of living and therefore the cost of labor trickles down to costs; and can have a pretty significant impact on them. If a concrete company’s cost of labor goes up 20% because the cost of living is up 20% (realistically more) the contractor can’t just absorb that cost. Here again, concrete, framing, roofing, mechanical/electrical/plumbing… the list goes on. The biggest contributor to the issues described?

Supply and Demand
Supply of rental homes is extremely low. Supply of existing homes for sale is low. Materials, labor, contractors, everything is in low supply. Demand? You guessed it, through the roof – pun intended. While the lack of supply has a direct impact on the cost of materials and labor, there are indirect costs as well. If I can sell my used car for 10% more than I paid new, I am absolutely going to do that. In addition, I think there is likely some price gouging going on out there. Regardless, the bottom line is that people in small communities make their living when the economy is doing well. I’m not just speaking for myself when I talk (or think) about slow times.

What gives?
It’s interesting to read articles about economic cycles and what seems to be a universal opinion that times are different in terms of a potential real estate recession. Supply is still extremely low today. However, while leading up to the recession in the mid-2000s, supply was out of whack. Regardless, I’ll never make a steadfast economic prediction – and I’ll never promise that a recession won’t happen. That said, I do believe that rising interest rates will create some affordability issues (who am I kidding, there are already pretty significant affordability issues) that will tamp down the demand for construction which is already expensive. I also believe that notwithstanding prices rising so quickly, I do believe the pandemic created some shelter, keeping things in control because costs increased so significantly. With these changes in our economy, we can only hope to see some relief to balance the market. If this occurs, it will undoubtedly help stabilize some of these crazy construction prices.

Okay, I’m done blabbing about the stuff you probably already know.

So what’s it cost?
I didn’t reread my article, but I recall building my first project pretty affordably, keeping in mind that I did so much of that work myself. Costs obviously went up in 2017, and I do remember it getting more difficult to line up contractors – there was quite a bit more construction happening then. A few other considerations, some builders calculate a basic garage in their square footage cost estimate and I think you could accomplish that with the numbers below assuming modest construction, keeping in mind that Teton Valley’s modest construction tends to be a little on the “higher end” side of things including better heating systems, insulation, etc. Most of the contractors here use 5/8 drywall, 12 gauge wiring, and so on.

The Numbers

2015: $250/SqFt
2017: $310/SqFt
2022: $420/SqFt

2021 Residential Year End Sales Report

February 16, 2022 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

While the number of residential sales is down compared with 2020, the average sales price is a completely different story. Almost unbelievably, the average sales price in Teton Valley has more than doubled since year end of 2018, and has surged above $1m by the 3rd Q ’21.

Building Costs
Building costs have played a major role with respect to residential home prices, keeping inventory low and not giving spec home builders a confidence to meet the demand of new buyers to the area. It’s hard to quantify how much building costs have risen, but personal experience and interviewing with a few builders confirms my thoughts of somewhere in the range of 50 to 60% since 2020, somewhat consistent with the increase in the average sales price from 2020 to 2021.

2021 Year to Date
As with all market reports it’s important to look at both average sales prices as well as median sales prices that better indicate realistic numbers for middle of the road properties. A few key takeaways include the average sales price growing steadily quarter by quarter in 2021, but the median sales price reducing slightly in the fourth quarter, which is consistent with what we saw with 2021 land sales as well. Here are the numbers:

2021 Average Sales Price
Q1: 694,900
Q2: 966,655
Q3: 1,005,521
Q4: 1,093,040

2021 Median Sales Price
Q1: 558,429
Q2: 664,000
Q3: 724,950
Q4: 649,000

Predictions
This will probably sound a lot like all of those National news articles you’ve been reading, but most expect these unusual market increases as well as demand to subside back to normal rates sometime in 2022 due to supply chains catching up and interest rates increasing. With respect to our micro market, it’s hard to say when that will happen. Building costs remain high, lumber futures are again on the rise, and most builders are backlogged for the next 18 months or more. If we do see stabilization throughout the Nation, my suspicion is that it will take some time for Teton Valley to follow suit.

Marketing Backfires in a Seller’s Market

January 26, 2022 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Notwithstanding some recent market volatility, looming interest rate hikes and other noteworthy news headlines, supply remains incredibly low and demand is as high as ever here in Teton Valley. While the market likely won’t always be in this predicament, I believe this advice will remain pertinent for many market cycles to come.

Getting back to the subject line here, we’ve grown accustomed to allowing the market to “autocorrect” when it comes to listing properties, at least listing them too low. If we know the last sale for something was $100,000, and it was more than a couple of months ago, we usually anticipate multiple offers at or above that number. With this consideration I arrive at my first no-no;

Listing too high

This can be a delicate balance, particularly when we know that the market increases month by month. We almost have to anticipate how much it has increased but not overshoot. Overshooting typically results in “days on market”, and the general conclusion by the public is that there is something wrong with the property. Days on market can be normal in normal markets, but detrimental in hot markets.

Anticipating multiple offers

I’ve seen this one happen a few times over the past 12 months. Just because the market is hot doesn’t mean that it can’t be eclipsed by random happenings. Real estate markets always come and go in waves and cycles. It’s strange how everybody looks at real estate at the same time, and oftentimes we find that people aren’t looking at the same time. Marketing a property stating that you are “accepting offers through Tuesday at noon” when you don’t actually have an offer might deter the only person looking at the house.

Overdoing itThis one’s hand in hand with the scenario above, but overdoing it can sometimes create a marketing issue. For example, scheduling an open house with a tagline of “multiple buyers expected, showings limited between 12 to 3:00” might also detour someone that isn’t interested in bidding against multiple buyers, even when there aren’t multiple buyers. Scheduling too many open houses is also a signal that the activity was less than expected, almost as if sellers are begging for buyers, we don’t want to give that impression.

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