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The (Summer) 2020 Real Estate Craze

August 16, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I try not to write articles about market statistics. It creates references in time that may not be relevant a year from now, or even a month from now. I am working with a customer as I write this that brought up an article I wrote back in 2012, and how much things have changed. It goes back to using old real estate data to value something today. Appraisers like to use the most recent data possible, and rarely look at anything over a year old. There’s a good reason for that. With the above said, let’s get into it.

What’s Happening? If you are reading this article today, I don’t have to tell you how crazy the real estate market is. If you are reading this article 8 years from now, it’s crazy. Everything is flying off the shelf. To put things into perspective, In 2019 there were 281 land sales throughout Teton Valley. Year-to-date we’ve had 189. This isn’t that crazy. Add in the number of pending transactions and that number jumps to 292 – and August isn’t even over yet. There are over 100 contracts on vacant land out there today. Here’s another one. In 2019 there were 21 sales throughout Teton Valley in excess of $1m. YTD there have been 15, but there are 20 pending sale. I can do this in pretty much every sector of the real estate market.

What Caused This? I think it’s pretty clear that COVID-19 has something to do with it. People flocking to rural America is a conversation I’m almost tired of having. I thought about naming the article in the name of the catalyst – but I’m not even going to go there. This is a touchy subject that has impacted millions of people. Regardless, I’m sure we are in a little bit of a perfect storm. Another thing I’ll hate to admit for future readers sifting through old material, interest rates are at historic lows. Even the interest rates are tied to the pandemic, however. Teton Valley was waiting to be discovered? Yeah, we’ve been saying that for a long time. I wrote an article not long ago about the common comparison of the future of Teton Valley to the next Park City or Sun Valley. In that article, I basically made a claim that we have too much available land and we were quite a ways off from that happening. Now I remember why I don’t make predictions.

What’s Going to Happen? Hey, I just said I don’t want to make predictions. I will provide a few scenarios, however.

Scenario 1: We do become the next big destination. Targhee expands, all of those 3500 building sites throughout the Valley that everyone said would never get purchased are snatched up. Construction goes wild, and commercial expands. Teton Valley becomes as recognizable as Sun Valley.

Scenario 2: All of the bad stuff happening in the world catches up to us, and gets us back into reality. Everyone working from home and moving to Teton Valley realizes that we do have a Winter season, and it is a long one. Inventory levels creep back up and the market stabilizes, or sags.

Scenario 3: We know there is turmoil in the economy, but not all economic downturns impact real estate. After all, most historic data shows that since the 50s or so, we really only had one drop in real estate prices, and that was in 2007. It’s fresh in my mind because that was a big chunk of my career, so that probably always causes me to be conservative or even pessimistic in some fashion or another. Anyway, certain areas of the Valley are changed forever. All of the golf clubs become more exclusive, and the high-end real estate becomes less obtainable. Many of these land purchases remain vacant land, but residential inventory rises over time. Those city dwellers tired of winter adds to that inventory, and the market stabilizes, or at least normalizes. Real estate prices aren’t dramatically affected because construction costs remain high, and much of the land purchased today is redistributed into the market over the next generation. COVID-19 and the Summer of 2020 changes the landscape of Teton Valley forever, and traffic increases with visitors who have finally discovered our beautiful home.

Remember, I don’t make predictions. But if somebody gave me all three of these options, I think this is the one I would probably put my money on.

Land Inspections

June 13, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I’m not sure if it’s how busy things are or the increase in the number of land transactions equating to an increase of things I haven’t seen before, but I sure have seen an uptick of strange inspection findings. Over the course of my career, I’ve bumped into town parcels without connectivity to a sewer line, sinkholes because of buried cars, a number of buried fuel tanks, concerns over oil spills, hillside geotechnical concerns and more. As one might expect, I’ve also run the gamut with discussions on radon, bugs, covenants and restrictions, easements and so on. However, lately, I’ve even bumped into a few more. Bedrock preventing a typical septic install, extraordinary deep wells and artesian wells and springs are a few examples. One thing is for sure (although not as geographically interesting as Yellowstone), Teton Valley has some diverse terrain with nuances that one may not normally consider. I suppose it all depends on what one might be used to in terms of the nuances of their area, but even I would not have predicted bedrock in areas of the Teton Valley.

The above being said, it’s important to do your research. Remember that as agents, we are not experts in geography, terrain, practicing law, interpreting title and so forth. Real estate agents negotiate real estate transactions, and that includes negotiating due diligence and inspection periods for buyers to better understand and research the property they intend to buy.

Unfortunately, it’s almost impossible to plan for every situation that may arise when purchasing land with plans to build. One of the benefits (although not a guarantee) of purchasing a pre-existing home is the fact that many of the potential problems either did not arise, or have been resolved. Another tip to consider when buying land is purchasing in a subdivision. Although I have bumped into properties within subdivisions that still had special wetland requirements or septic problems, it’s less likely. With the growing demand for properties that are not in a subdivision, it’s important to also consider the fact that subdivisions have likely already been through a preliminary set of county or city required engineering reports, soil testing and so on.

The moral of the story, and the theme for many of my articles is; do your research!

What is going on with the potential County Zone and Code changes?

March 9, 2020 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

The county is currently working through a land development code update. They have drafted an initial code, and are currently in the stages of the public review and comment for the draft code. There are some big proposed changes, but what do they mean?

Teton County’s comprehensive plan, zoning, land use and development codes can be a lot to understand. I often have to find ways to articulate information and provide data in an efficient way without being overbearing, similar to situations when I am working with a first-time home buyer. I’m going to try to explain the new proposed zoning changes in this article, saving the development and code changes for another day.

WHAT IS IT NOW?

The County (not City limits) is currently made up of two main types of zoning, A-2.5 and A-20 zones. Most of the areas South of Victor and North or East of State Highway 33 are A-2.5, and most everything else (save for a few areas along the foothills) is A-20. It’s roughly 50-50. What does that mean? It’s pretty simple. A-2.5 has a minimum density requirement of one house & guest house per 2.5 acres, and A-20 is 20 acres. There are a few other zoning categories, mostly related to industrial and commercial use.

WHAT IS PROPOSED?

Aside from the commercial zones, there are five new zoning types proposed. Keeping in mind that the number represents the minimum density requirement per residence, they are as follows: A “Rural Agriculture” 35 acre zone replaces most of what used to be the A-20. A second 35 acre “Wetland” zone is similar, presumably with stricter development guidelines due to its location within wetland areas, mostly in the watershed East of the Teton River. A “Foothill” 10-acre zone encompasses most of the surrounding foothills, which would take the place of the previous 2.5 acres zone in many areas. A rural neighborhood 20 acres zone is built around the areas East of Driggs to accommodate future development, and finally, the highest density zone is a “Rural Neighborhood” 5 acre zone that would encompass the Fox Creek area between Victor and Driggs and the Hastings Lane are between Driggs and Tetonia, both mostly limited to areas East of State Highway 33.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN? This is largely up to interpretation and debate. Unfortunately, it will likely turn into a political debate, but that’s not my purpose here. My interpretation is that it is clear that the density requirements are going to go WAY down. In other words, there will be fewer homes per acre. It will likely decrease the supply of land over time, and increase demand. In theory, this could increase property values in the distant future as existing land is absorbed. At the same token, it will make it challenging for newcomers to the area looking for affordable land. As a property owner, I see both the upside and downside. I do not own any large farm tracts so I am not affected by land development challenges. I also feel that many of our building sites are more affordable than they should be, considering the recreational market status of our community. However, that is mostly attributed to the perception of oversupply (and construction costs), which I have discussed in previous articles, and will discuss further in future ones.

How many vacant building sites are there? (Really)

November 14, 2019 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I’ve been reading a number of articles lately referencing the impact all of the development in the late 2000s had on Teton Valley. Many of these articles compare today’s potential problems with those of the subdivision development era. Glampgrounds, RV parks, and certainly any further land development have been targets, often for good reason. While I agree that the amount of development that occurred in the late 2000s was extreme, I believe that the perceived impact and comparison to some of these other projects is also extreme, and in many cases exaggerated. I’ve heard numbers from 7000 to 16000 undeveloped building lots in Teton Valley which off the cuff, sounded high to me. So, I decided to investigate.

My first thought was that I would have to find a list of the available subdivisions, add up the number of lots in each, and subtract lots with improvements. This seemed like a daunting task. Fortunately, I learned that Rob Marin, the county’s extremely talented GIS coordinator had already done the heavy lifting. He based his analysis on subdivision lots, which is exactly what I would have done. After all, the purpose of the comparison and root of the problem is indeed subdivision lots. He determined (with a small margin of error) that there are 8,454 subdivision lots in the county, and that 3106 had improvements as of the date of Rob’s study, leaving 5,348 vacant subdivision lots in the county.

***Now might be a great time to read one of my past articles, With so many available building sites, why is it so hard to find what I am looking for?

Admittedly, this sounds like a lot. It is a lot. The question is, and point of my article; is the number of vacant building sites really as detrimental and overwhelming as it appears and is made to sound? Here are a few points from the devil’s advocate, speaking in generalities.

1) Some subdivisions really do, in my opinion, exist in a vacuum. What happens in or with them really doesn’t have very much impact on the rest of the real estate market. Example: Tributary, FKA Huntsman Springs. There are roughly 500 vacant building sites in Tributary. This is almost 10% of the 5,000 vacant building sites mentioned. The same goes for many other large-scale developments such as River Rim Ranch. Could it be construed that these developments are problems in and of themselves? Sure. However, if real estate prices plummeted, or skyrocketed in Tributary, I don’t feel it would have a major impact on the rest of the real estate in Teton Valley.

2) We know that roughly 65% of the available building sites are vacant, or at least have no improvements. There are approximately 300 subdivisions in Teton County. For the sake of making a point, imagine that each of them has roughly 25 lots. Each of those have 8 or 9 houses. A few of those own the neighboring lots. This isn’t the case, but it puts things in perspective.

3) Teton Valley is big. If you start breaking this down by quadrant, for example, the southeast corner of the valley (better known as Victor) doesn’t really have a problem as there are relatively few subdivisions with little to no improvements. Things are much closer to the scenario I outlined in point 2 above, if not better. Yes, I know there’s a counterpoint to every point I’ve made here. Some of the big subdivisions that are mostly vacant are considered to be the biggest part of the problem. The issue isn’t necessarily consistent across the board as mentioned in point 2, and while things are looking pretty good in Driggs and Victor, Tetonia has a huge ratio of some of these subdivisions with very few, or no homes at all. In any case, it is what it is. They are what they are, and they’ll sell when they sell. We can’t take away land from those who invested in a piece of Teton Valley just because we now recognize that things got carried away a decade ago. As a final point, throughout the course of my career, there have always been approximately 500 building sites on the market at any given time. I suspect that isn’t going to change anytime soon, so I’m not particularly worried about extreme changes with respect to value. The key takeaway is that there are a few (several) problem subdivisions out there. However, in most cases they are being farmed, waiting for their moment to become a neighborhood. I believe in responsible growth, and hope we can learn from mistakes relative to oversupply and over-development, but I hope past mistakes don’t prevent Teton Valley from growing responsibly.

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