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Rental Analysis – How do I understand Rates and Projections?

November 11, 2023 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

There is a lot to unpack here, and it’s important to know that rental markets change extremely quickly in the scheme of things. While COVID played a significant role in the short-term rental industry and our market locally, the long-term rental industry has been evolving at a fast pace as well. I’ve made some market predictions about both industries over the years and despite the outcome one thing is for sure, you don’t necessarily rely on what you hear today, because it’s inevitably (almost) always yesterday’s news.

Valuation
When it comes to valuing real estate, real estate agents (not appraisers and not offering appraisals) and appraisers use similar methods which include different types of valuation. The easiest, and most common is the comparable sale method. We essentially adjust the sales price of comparable properties based on differences between the property we are valuing and the property that has actually sold. Obviously markets change, so we generally don’t look back further than 6 or 12 months. The sales information is normally available mostly as a courtesy of the multiple listing service, a database of sales activity stored by local Realtor associations. Since Idaho is a non-disclosure state, counties often find difficulty valuing property for the purpose of tax assessment, so the public data is often skewed.

Depending on the area, rental data may be collected by a multiple listing service. However, in our area, it is not. The reason for this is based on several factors, but in my opinion it is primarily because Idaho does not require licensure for property managers. For this reason, property managers in the Teton Valley area are generally not members of listing services or Realtor associations, so they do not record the data. Even in Wyoming where property management does require a real estate license, much of the data goes unrecorded. So, how is the data tracked? Depending on whether we are talking about short-term or long-term rentals, there is some data that might be available, but often, you need to take it with a grain of salt.

Short-Term Rental Analysis
Much like the Zillow “Zestimate”, there are “data mining” companies and tools available that can help generate valuations even without multiple listing service data. Because Idaho is a non-disclosure state, Zillow does not have access to sales data. They do, however, have access to listing price data. Presumably when a property sells (even though Zillow may not have access to the actual sales price), they can make some assumptions based on market conditions, how long the property was on market before it sold and other metrics to estimate (or zestimate…) the sales price to help generate the “Zestimate”. There are similar tools available in the short-term rental industry available such as AirDNA and other data providers that are able to collect data. While I’m not an expert on AirDNA, my assumption is that they collect data from their own subscribers that report information, as well as data they receive from some of the marketplace giants like Airbnb and VRBO. I also assume that this data may be skewed based on what they receive. If it’s just a blocked calendar, one probably should not assume that it is necessarily a paying guest since it could certainly be a homeowner blocking their own calendar for personal use. Even though this data may in some instances be conservative, this is my best guess as to why we often find AirDNA provides data that may be unattainable in the real world (here in Teton Valley).

Long-Term rental analysis
This one is even more challenging. Not only are property managers not typically a member of the multiple listing service, but they rarely collaborate. This, coupled with the seasonality of long-term rentals (and short-term rentals, for that matter), can create some volatile expectations for both investors and tenants. Many years ago before the market hardly began to improve after the fallout in 2008, I distinctly recall many conversations with those trying to prepare studies and gathering data in order to do so. Similar to my life today, I was completely underwater trying to provide this data as a courtesy, often off the top of my head. While I’m generally pretty good at doing so, and can spit out fairly accurate information, it’s unlikely that any of the data was extremely scientific when it came to absorption, rates, and so on. While short-term rentals at least have some available information that might point to market conditions such as National software providers like Airbnb or VRBO, the local rental market does not. As a result, long-term tenants often find themselves jumping from property manager to manager and newspaper ad to marketplace listing to get a grasp on inventory, or lack thereof. I will give a shout out and link below a great effort set forth by the Community Resource Center of Teton Valley. They (painstakingly I’m sure) canvas the most well-known sources for long-term rental listings throughout the community and compile them into one list. It’s not perfect, and not up to date to the minute, but it’s pretty darn good.

The bottom line? When it comes to understanding rental markets in Teton Valley, trust your local professionals. While Realtors have a pretty good handle on most things around here (really, the local industry is lucky to have such a hardworking, professional and honest group) not all of them are heavily involved with property management. The best advice that I can give is to trust local property management companies. Similar to our group of real estate professionals in the area, all of the property managers in Teton Valley are extremely well versed and honest. Since I’m listing shout-outs (and yes, I do have an interest at stake here), Kerstyn at Teton Valley Property Management is amongst the very best.

Community Resource Center of Teton Valley

Teton Valley Property Management

Shared Wells, Are They Legal In Idaho?

September 20, 2023 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

I’m going to call this a “read at your own risk” article based on limited knowledge of the subject, but I also feel the need to provide the data as it is so much different than what we have historically understood. The topic? Shared Wells.

Historically, multiple property owners have (or maybe thought they had) the ability to share one well with multiple homes. There is/was always a limit as to the number of homes which the Department of Environmental Quality would be involved for water monitoring. A separate entity that controls water in the State of Idaho, The Idaho Department of Water Resources (IDWR) position on shared wells was that most of the water would be returned to the aquifer, and a shared well between multiple homes was really no different than each home having an individual well as long as the usage did not exceed the state’s limitation for water usage for domestic water for each parcel without water rights, 13,000 gallons per day including up to 1/2 acre of landscaping.

Recently, however, an amended Snake River Basin moratorium for issuance of new water rights has created some challenges when it comes to shared well systems. A byproduct was (I assume inadvertently) prohibiting new water rights for shared wells. Since one parcel would be sharing a well with other unrelated parcels, legally, that apparently requires an additional water right with minimum CFS (Cubic Feet per Second) or diversion rate requirement to provide sufficient water to the additional homes. Since new water rights are not being issued, technically, in order to legally have a shared well, these owners would need to find an additional groundwater right that meets the CFS requirements or find a way to mitigate water from other areas, essentially by drying up other acreage.

Historically, many communities and municipalities have been able to share wells, but that would require municipal or domestic water rights. Since water rights are so valuable in Idaho, new developments with shared well systems that are not a part of an existing system or municipal system may become challenging, and that unfortunately trickles down to small systems including one to three homes sharing wells for the purpose of efficiency.

Stay tuned on this topic and (of course) do your own research on this contentious matter.

My data and source for this article was my interpretation of a conversation with an employee at the Idaho Department of Water Resources on September 20th, 2023.

Wetland: What Does It Mean and How Can It Impact My Property?

September 11, 2023 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

***Article Update: Kent Werlin is the Senior Wetland Scientist with Biota Research and Consulting in Jackson, Wyoming. Kent was kind enough to edit my article and provide updated, more accurate information. My disclaimer stands (do your own research), and see the updated article below:

Wetlands are often confused with floodplains and flood zones. Flood zones are not always wetlands, and wetlands are not necessarily located in floodplains, though there are circumstances where either could be true. Flood zones can occur in areas next to large bodies of water or runoff areas and are often considered higher risk when it comes to flooding. However, any property can flood, not necessarily only properties in a floodplain.

Wetlands are regulated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Water Act. To be considered a “wetland”, an area must meet all of the following  criteria:

1) Wetland Hydrology: To have wetland hydrology, an area must be at least saturated in the upper 12 inches of the soil profile for a period of 14 days during the growing season in 5 out of every 10 years. Active monitoring of hydrology via the use of shallow groundwater monitoring wells and/or wetland hydrology indicators are utilized by wetland professionals to determine the presence of wetland hydrology. These indicators include the presence of surface water, saturation, geomorphic position, oxidized rhizospheres (root channels), a dominance of wetland vegetation, and others.

2) Wetland (Hydrophytic) Vegetation: roughly a quarter of the plant species in the United States grow in wetland areas. To be a wetland, an area must be dominated by facultative or wetter plant species based on the National Wetland Plant List, which designates plant species as upland, facultative upland, facultative, facultative wetland, or obligate wetland. These are described below:

  • Upland – plant species that occur in non-wetland areas 99% of the time and do not indicate wetland conditions (e.g. sheep fescue, sagebrush, western wheatgrass)
  • Facultative Upland – plant species that occur in upland environments 75% of the time and in wetlands 25% of the time (e.g., orchardgrass)
  • Facultative – plant species that occur in wetland environments 50% of the time and in upland environments 50% of the time (e.g. Kentucky bluegrass, common timothy, and meadow foxtail)
  • Facultative Wetland – plant species that occur wetland environments 75% of the time and in upland environments 25% of the time (e.g. Baltic Rush, reed canarygrass)
  • Obligate Wetland – plant species that occur in wetlands 99% of the time. These species are generally indicative of wet areas. (e.g. beaked sedge, Booth’s willow, hardstem bullrush)

3) Wetland Soils: Wetland soils are often referred to as hydric soils. These soils can generally be analyzed by digging a 20-inch deep hole and looking for hydric soil indicators that indicate a high water table and/or periodic saturation within the upper horizons of the soil profile. These indicators include an abundance of organic soil matter, oxidized iron (rust colored) or manganese (purple) concentrations, and others.

Can you build in Wetland?

Wetland areas do require special permits and approvals. But first, they must be identified as wetland, usually by way of what is referred to as a wetland or aquatic resource delineation performed by a properly trained wetland consultant (such as the co-author of this article, Kent Werlin, the Senior Wetland Scientist with Biota Research and Consulting) and following the wetland delineation protocol approved by the Army Corps. Wetlands in Teton County are subject to both federal and local (county) regulations which differ in their requirements.

If a property in Teton County, Idaho shows indications of wetland presence based on the nationwide National Wetland Inventory (NWI) mapping (can be viewed via the Teton County GIS Mapserver), the county will generally require a delineation before approving subdivision or issuing grading or development permits for the subject property. Under current county regulations (Teton County Land Development Code 2022), the county requires either a 50′ or 100′ development setback on wetlands, depending on the level of analysis conducted. If a site-specific wetland delineation is conducted, the county will place a 50’ development setback on all wetlands delineated by a wetland professional and approved by the Army Corps. If there is no site-specific wetland delineation conducted, then the county falls back on the NWI mapping and requires a 100’ setback on NWI mapped wetlands.

At the federal level, the Army Corps requires a permit application for the placement of fill material (e.g., rock, gravel, concrete, soil, etc.) in jurisdictional wetlands. The Army Corps has a suite of streamlined Nationwide Permits for activities that impact up to 0.5 acres of wetland. If wetland impacts exceed 0.1 acres, then the Army Corps requires a Compensatory Wetland Mitigation Plan that involves the creation of new wetlands or enhancement of existing wetlands to compensate for development-related wetland losses.

A recent supreme court case (EPA v Sackett) decision has put the jurisdictional status of some wetlands at the federal level in question. The Army Corps is in the process of modifying their technical guidance for determining jurisdictional status based on the outcome of this court case and should be issuing guidance in the coming months. While it may be possible to impact wetland areas with the proper permits, it is important to remember the reason that these regulations exist….to protect wildlife, habitat, and waterways, often considered a key cornerstone of Teton Valley’s natural beauty.

END UPDATED ARTICLE – Special thanks to Kent Werlin, biotaresearch.com

Disclaimer: As always, I need to start out this article with a disclaimer. I know enough about many of these topics to be dangerous – which is dangerous. Always seek the advice of appropriate professionals as this information is subject to change as well as my own interpretation. I don’t often go back and update old articles, so I’ll leave this here.

Wetland should not be confused with floodplain. Flood zones are not always wetland, and wetlands are not necessarily in floodplains. Flood zones normally occur in areas next to bodies of water or runoff areas and are often considered higher risk when it comes to flooding. However, any property can flood, not necessarily only properties in a floodplain or a wetland.

How to Identify Wetland

Wetland can occur even in areas not directly adjacent to a body of water and is usually determined by three primary factors:

1) Hydrology: Hydrology indicators can include the presence of surface water or wet soils as determined by evidence or review by a wetland professional utilizing different tools or testing to understand the presence of water.

2) Vegetation: Roughly a quarter of the plant vegetation species in the United States grow in wetland areas. Plant species can be classified in a number of different ways as identified below in order of wet to dry:

  • Obligate Wetland (usually very indicative of wetland areas) ie Sedges (which have triangular, sharp stems) and Willow
  • Facultative Wetland (usually occur in wetlands, but occasionally found in non-wetlands) ie Horsetail, Baltic Rush
  • Facultative (equally likely to occur in wetlands or non-wetlands) Meadow Foxtail, Timothy, Brome, Bluegrass
  • Facultative Upland (usually occur in non-wetlands, but occasionally found in wetlands) ie Potentilla
  • Obligate Upland (almost always occur only in non-wetlands) ie Sheep Fescue

3) Soils: Wetland soils are often referred to as hydric soils. These soils can be analyzed by digging a hole (usually 12-18 in deep) and looking at indications of saturated soils that usually show indications of oxygen depletion. This can be evidenced (essentially) by rust in the soils and the coming and going of water, creating oxidation. Oxidation can be due to iron and is usually identified by orange flecks in the soil or manganese which will reveal itself with a purple color.

Can you build in Wetland?

Wetland areas do require special permits and approvals. But first, they must be identified as wetland, usually by way of what is referred to as a Wetland Delineation performed by a properly trained wetland Consultant.

If a particular property shows indications of wetland, Teton County, Idaho will generally require a Wetland Delineation. They have requirements of 50′ or 100′ setbacks, depending on the delineation findings. If the project looks like it will encroach within 50′ of wetlands as indicated by the Delineation, the county may require a Jurisdictional Determination (JD) from the Army Corps of Engineers. If there are any questions on a project, despite setbacks, the Teton County Planning Staff may still send the information to the Corps for review. A JD is the process of Determining whether areas indicated as wetland are regulated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers under section 404 of the Clean Water Act and/or Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act.

If a property is determined to be wetland, with the proper permits it may be possible to impact up to 0.1 acre of wetland for driveway, septic, and a home site. If wetland is mitigated to another area, these improvement areas can be increased to 0.5 acres.

Wetland areas can make tremendous home sites, but it is important to remember the reason that these regulations exist in order to protect wildlife, habitat and waterways, often considered a key cornerstone of Teton Valley’s natural beauty.

Sources:

  • https://www.sac.usace.army.mil/Missions/Regulatory/Jurisdictional-Determinations-and-Delineations/#:~:text=A%20Jurisdictional%20Determination%20(JD)%20is,Clean%20Water%20Act%20and%2For
  • 1998 Edition of the US Army Corps of Engineers “Recognizing Wetlands” document
  • https://dec.vermont.gov/watershed/wetlands/what/id/hydrophytes
  • Teton County, Idaho Planning & Zoning
  • Teton County, Idaho Land Development Code (current)
  • http://www.biotaresearch.com/

Deferred Maintenance and its Impact on Value

June 8, 2023 By Tayson Rockefeller Leave a Comment

Homeownership comes with maintenance. In fact, it can oftentimes be one of the key driving factors for one to consider selling a home, particularly in an area subject to second homes, as well as the high maintenance aspects of Teton Valley. From snow removal to home staining and constant deck refinishing, it isn’t always easy.

In past articles I have identified home upgrades that can help with resale value, but one of my most recent articles on the subject was way back in 2015. The cost of remodeling, additions and even maintenance was significantly lower back then. As a result, my (current) advice is typically to sell as-is without major upgrades because the return on investment can be so hard to achieve. In some events, I provide this same advice even for deferred maintenance, because the availability of contractors can be so limited that one might miss an opportune sale window by waiting for contractors.

Because of this, I can’t stress the importance of ongoing maintenance (and repairs) enough. Throughout my career in real estate I have witnessed so many circumstances where a seller concession was so much more than the collective maintenance would have been. The same goes for repairs. A small shower glass leak that continually pools water eventually finds its way to the subfloor, creates mold, requires tile replacement, etc. While this seems obvious, what we tend to forget about is the additional cost of a sales concession to satisfy a concerned buyer. We usually can’t remedy a bathroom overhaul during a contract period. As a result, buyers look for concessions in excess of the cost of repair, which honestly makes sense. They assume the liability of the repair, the risk of unseen damage, the organization and completion of the task and the inconvenience of it all until completed. There was a time through 2021 where sellers didn’t need to make concessions in order to finalize the sale, but the market has shifted, even if it hasn’t been as much with respect to values.

In addition to the concession needed to satisfy a buyer that is so often in excess of the cost of maintenance repair, the other obvious benefit of regular home maintenance and repair is how well a home shows during its time as a real estate listing. It’s amazing how much sooner offers are received, how much more buyers are willing to negotiate, and how fewer days on market accumulate with well-maintained homes in good order. While feng shui and declutter is important, the feeling of a well-maintained home is hard to beat.

With the above said, below is a list of home maintenance items I often see overlooked.

Staining!
Nearly every home inspection report comes back with siding maintenance either desperately needed, or recommended. It’s easy to put this one off, year by year – particularly when you contact the local staining company of your choice each Spring, just to learn that they are booked through Fall. Make your appointments in the Winter, and get on the schedule early. The frequency of home staining can vary dramatically. I stain my full wraparound deck every other year, but only need to stain the exterior of my home about every 10 years. My home is mostly shaded, but receives heavy snow load on the decks that I clear after every storm with a snow blower. The lack of direct sunlight and wind-driven moisture provide shelter for my house, but most homes in Teton Valley are subject to high UV sunlight (something we sometimes miss) and wind that both drives moisture and dries siding. Stains with high transparency tend to need more frequent maintenance whereas opaque stains or paints usually don’t need refinishing quite as often. There’s a big argument between oil and water-based stains, but I’m not getting into that with this article. At any rate, once siding loses its protection layer, it doesn’t take long for warping, cupping, cracking and the loosening of fasteners to occur, only adding to the cost of the deferred maintenance.

Decks and Deck Railings
Same comments, above.

Roofs/Ice Dams
There’s no better time to take care of ice dams than in the Summer months when you can stand on your roof! You can read a recent article HERE.

Stone, Metal, Flashing
Stone or brick falling away from chimneys and homes are usually doing so for a reason. Finding the source of a water leak, bad flashing, etc. can save a major overhaul down the line.

Windows
Window seals often fail, and getting glass replaced can take months to find contractors, order glass and install. Waiting until you have a contract on your home puts you in the precarious position I described at the outset of the article. On a related side note, removing window screens during the Winter months is a great way to add longevity to them.

Driveway Sealing and Sidewalks
Sealing concrete is becoming ever more important with Idaho salting roads for Winter safety. This chemical compound rides with your car in the wheel wells and undercarriage, and melts away on your concrete drive creating “spalling”. Simply sealing concrete can help you avoid costly repairs. While asphalt tends to be more resilient in this area, it also requires sealing. Settling concrete walks are also relatively common in the area. Many foam injection companies have moved into the region, offering concrete leveling without the jackhammer. Leveling and sealing sidewalks so that you aren’t worrying about concessions (and trip hazards) down the line is an easy repair and offers great peace of mind.

Hardwood Floors
Hardwood floor refinishing is another one of those services that can vastly improve value, but it requires scheduling far in advance of listing your home for sale.

Lawn & Sprinkler Maintenance
If you’ve ever noticed those hard water deposits on a few of your windows or the white “arcs” on the side of your house, a simple sprinkler adjustment can easily remedy the problem and save thousands in repairs. Similarly, weeding and grounds maintenance is a whole lot easier before it gets out of control.

Rodent and Pest Control
I’ve touched on this and past articles, but rodents and pests can wreak havoc on homes. Field mice can cause significant issues relative to home systems, particularly insulation in crawl spaces. Carpenter ants can do nearly as much damage as termites (which we generally don’t have) in this area, particularly with timber or log homes. Getting a handle on pest control at the outset is a must.

HVAC / Plumbing
Other overlooked maintenance items include furnace filters, house ventilation filters, dryer vent cleaning, electric heater register cleaning, water filtration replacement, HRV filter cleaning and more. If you aren’t capable or interested in maintaining these items, have it noted every time these home systems are serviced by a professional. If you are, a dry erase marker on your HVAC duct is a great indicator as to the last time all of these home systems were serviced. Buyers asking for concessions for these types of services (if they are not obviously maintained) is common.

Tile, Stone and Grout Sealing
Most tile does not require sealing, but stone and granite countertops as well as grout lines usually do. Most stone fabricators will tell you that the initial sealant on granite countertops is good for anywhere from 5 to 10 years, and grout can be sealed more frequently, even as much as annually depending on traffic patterns and use. This isn’t a fun task, but it’s something to consider.

General Cleaning
Easy to forget surfaces such as the tops of cabinets and window tracks are much easier to keep clean if they are cleaned frequently. No, I don’t clean my window tracks every year, but I try to do it every other year if I can.

Each home is different, and each home requires a unique maintenance procedure. Keeping a notepad along with your other house service manuals and getting a feel for your investment can not only save costly repairs down the line, but also pay back in dividends when it comes time to sell.

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