Teton Realty Blog

Teton Region Real Estate Market Stats, Articles & News

Where are we relative to 2007?

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Being a real estate agent and a small-time real estate investor, not only do I closely watch localized trends, but also pay attention to National trends. I pay attention to articles about things that can impact the housing market, and I try to interpret how they will trickle down to my local market. Lately I have began seeing comparisons of home prices at the peak of our last boom compared to now, as an analytical point to understand where we are in our “expansion” cycle.

The general consensus of these articles is that we are on par with home prices in 2007. However, there are a couple of sticking points with this train of thought in my opinion.

First, this does not take inflation into account. While it has only been 10 years; with an average inflation rate of about 2.25% over the past 10 years, current prices are (arguably) about 21.75% higher than prices in 2007 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index. I would interpret that to mean that a $100,000 home in 2007 would be $122,000 today not considering other Market factors, which these other analyses are also not considering. All things being equal, this should mean that prices are about 22% less today than they were in 2007, (assuming actual dollar amounts are similar) and that’s a big number.

Second, it does not consider difference in interest rates. Speaking in generalities, 30 year rates are about a full point less today than they were in 2007. While 1% doesn’t seem like much, if you take an average sales price of around $350,000, that can equate to $3,500 is a year in interest at the beginning stages of a loan. That’s almost $300 a month.

Third, if history repeats itself, that would indicate that we are about halfway through our expansion cycle, not at the end of the supply cycle. Based on local indicators, this would seemed accurate. Supply is still low, construction is underway. Usually the phase that follows expansion is high supply or oversupply. While construction costs seem to be keeping construction rates at bay, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to believe that things could pick up substantially and create an oversupply in two years’ time. if we aren’t careful.

In short, I truly believe that while we will experience a housing adjustment in the future, (not necessarily the near future) but also that it will not be as deep or have as much impact as the historic, most recent recession. I also believe that a recession will be followed by a period of expansion, and the thought process will repeat itself time and again as it has in the past. Until then, I’ll continue to read articles about National trends and take them with a grain of salt, then come to my own conclusions based on facts, data, historic data and my own experience despite how accurate or inaccurate they may be.

What is a Listing “Contingency”?

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Somewhat recently, the Teton MLS changed their display rules so that listings which are under contract (now labeled “Pending”, “Pending Contingent”, or “Pending Continue to Show”) still show up in consumer searches such as our websites and realtor.com. In years past, when an offer was accepted on a listing and the agent marked it as “pending” (meaning pending sale) in the local MLS, the listing was removed from advertising platforms so it was no longer visible to the public. Now that consumers are still able to see this information, I get all sorts of questions as to what the contingency is, or what it means. Most often, it is a potential buyer hoping that they can make an offer because there is a contingency and still have an opportunity to purchase the property. Unless there is a form of kick out clause, this usually is not the case. Further, most buyers depending on the language they are used to hearing and their local areas, believe that a contingency is something such as a buyer who must sell a home in another location before proceeding with the sale, but this usually isn’t the case.

Before going further, what is a contingency? Google’s definition is “a future event or circumstance that is possible but cannot be predicted with certainty.”

While I believe the above description is most accurate, I don’t believe it really fits with respect to the real estate definition of a contingency. Further, it is defined differently in different areas of the country, as mentioned above. Here in Teton Valley, it simply means any sort of event that must occur or must be satisfied by the buyer before the earnest money becomes non-refundable. For example, a buyer’s inspection is usually referred to as a contract contingency. Financing, a satisfactory appraisal – any number of things that must occur before the earnest money becomes non-refundable. Note that even if a contingency is not met, the buyer can still close a transaction if the buyer chooses to do so, effectively releasing the contingencies upon closing.

So, now that we have the local lingo down with respect to what a contingency is, it’s easier to remember not to get too excited about a listing because it is labeled as contingent. However, the way it is labeled can help indicate how solid the contract is. Currently, the Teton MLS has three forms of labeling a pending transaction. They are “Pending”, “Pending Contingent”, and “Pending Continue to Show”. In a perfect sense, simply stating “Pending” means there are no contingencies and it is very likely to close. “Pending Contingent” we covered above, and could simply mean the buyer has the right to do an inspection. “Pending Continue to Show”, on the other hand, might be something to ask your agent about. In order to label a listing as Pending Continue to Show, the buyer and seller are supposed to agree that the seller is authorized to do so. Also, there is usually a logical reason for displaying the listing like this, such as an unusual contingency like a buyer who much sell a property before closing on the subject property. In some cases these types of contracts are accompanied with a kick out clause in the event of seller receives a backup offer.

Now that you are armed with this new information, good luck on your search!

Will Heat Pumps Work in the Teton Valley Climate

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You’ll probably find a video in the coming weeks with respect to heat pumps in our climate, I’ve just installed one. One can assume that probably means that they do work in our climate, otherwise I wouldn’t have installed one. The real answer is, pretty much. With that said, read on for details.

The first thing to understand about heat pumps is how they work. In a traditional sense, heat is created by burning fuel (in the case of Teton Valley, propane, whereas natural gas is not available) or with the use of an electric heating element much the heating element in your oven, or the elements that glow bright red in your toaster. Heat pumps work much differently. Essentially, they absorb heat from the outside and transfer that heat inside your home through refrigerant. Refrigerant has all sorts of weird properties that allow it to boil and change from a liquid to a vapor at temperatures far different than something like water.

Not all heat pumps are created equal, there are different types. The most common types are air source and ground or water source heat pumps.

Ground source heat pumps are more traditionally referred to as geothermal systems.  There are different types of geothermal systems. The most common types are open-loop and closed-loop, we see closed loop systems more frequently in our area, but I have seen both. With a  closed loop  system, liquid is pumped through tubes in the ground which is naturally warm, even throughout the winter months. The heat that is absorbed is then extracted from the liquid as it returns to the heat pump, and the cold water is then pumped back into the ground to be reheated naturally. In the case of an open loop system, groundwater is used usually from a domestic well, the heat is extracted, and the water is then allowed to drain or in some cases is injected back into the ground.

Air source heat pumps are more traditionally referred to as condensers and evaporators, a good example is an air conditioning system. An air conditioner works by absorbing heat inside the home, then transferring it outside. In the winter the cycle reverses, and the heat is absorbed from the outside air and transferred inside. Believe it or not, there’s enough heat in the outdoor air even at very low temperatures. Obviously a major benefit of an air source system is that it can be reversed, and the home is then air-conditioned during the cooling months. The downside is that these systems begin to lose efficiency at about 0 degrees Fahrenheit, but can operate efficiently in Sub-Zero temperatures to a point. This is why at the preface of my article I said “pretty much.”

With respect to the air source systems, it never gets below 0 degrees in Teton Valley, so there’s nothing to worry about. Right? Sarcasm aside, there are solutions. The easiest solution is obviously a backup heat source that can be activated when the temperatures get too low for the system to operate efficiently. The other solution is to add an auxiliary form of heat to the system which can either be in electric coil that is activated at very low temperatures, or a gas furnace that activates at low temperatures. The latter is referred to a “dual fuel” system.

There are other types of air source heat pumps which are commonly referred to as “mini splits.” Mini splits are basically an air source heat pump, but rather than having the system tied to a traditional furnace, they usually have a smaller self contained blower connected to an outside condenser via refrigerant lines. Mini splits are very common in most parts of the world because of their efficient cooling and heating capabilities and the fact that they can easily be retrofitted to any residence or building with relative ease. The downside is that most mini split indoor units (often called heads) don’t have any way to add auxiliary forms of heat such as heating elements or gas-burning forms of backup heat. Regardless, I do anticipate seeing more of these types of installations with backup heat such as baseboard electric which can be used seldomly when the temperatures dip into the sub double digits.

As for my system, it’s ducted and ductless mini split system with backup heat strips and temperature lockouts, all of which is controlled from my smartphone. I’d be happy to fill you in, it’s pretty cool stuff.

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